Changes in community voting trends crucial in Kerala elections

As the Kerala Assembly election campaign is drawing to a close, the changing voting trends of various communities are going to be very crucial in view of sensitive issues ranging from the entry of women into Sabarimala to ‘Love Jihad’.

Even as the Hindu community constitutes around 55% of the Kerala population, the Muslims (27%) and the Christians (18%) often become game-changers in the elections due to the en bloc voting pattern of the minorities.

This time the BJP is trying hard to make inroads into the Christian vote bank by triggering an anti-Muslim sentiment and highlighting issues like an inadequate scholarship to the community and ‘love jihad’. But political analysts feel that it is unlikely to work especially owing to issues like the recent attack on Malayali nuns in Uttar Pradesh and Jesuit priest Stan Swamy languishing in jail.

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Till recently, the Christian vote banks were said to be pro-Congress especially as Kerala Congress, which enjoys the support of the community, quit the UDF and joined the Left Front. Senior political analyst Jacob George said the Congress may pay the price for ending its decades-long tie-up with Jose K Mani’s party.

However, the LDF is likely to face the wrath of the prominent Latin Catholic community in the coastal areas due to deep-sea trawler row as well as the Orthodox faction of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian church owing to the dilly-dallying in implementing a Supreme Court order granting control of around 2,000 churches to them.

As for Muslim votes, the general feeling is that there would be a strong consolidation of all outfits like the Indian Union Muslim League, Jamaat-e-Islami’s political outfit Welfare Party and Popular Front’s political outfit SDPI to prevent the growth of BJP.

The Muslim hardline outfits prefer the Congress-led front retuning to power, rather than the CPM as the Left leadership took a hard stand against them, political analysts pointed out. The BJP is trying hard to woo the Nair community by highlighting issues like Sabarimala women entry. Even though Nair Service Society had openly flayed LDF over the Sabarimala issue, they have not backed BJP’s stand. But a large section of the community seems to be leaning towards the BJP.