The Muslim strongholds of Malappuram and Kozhikode districts in North Kerala are likely to witness polarisation of the minority community in favour of the Congress and its key ally Indian Union Muslim League owing to the current political scenario, especially the BJP’s attempts to increase its influence in the state.
Political analysts also feel that hardcore Muslim outfits like the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the political party backed by Popular Front of India, and the Welfare Party, which is backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami, are likely to favour the Congress-led United Democratic Front and this would indeed help the IUML.
Even as SDPI had fielded candidates at 42 constituencies and Welfare Party fielded candidates at 19, their main objective this time would be to prevent BJP’s victory. The hardcore outfits may also prefer the Congress-led coalition rather than the CPM-led coalition coming to power.
Of the 16 constituencies in Malappuram district, IUML is contesting in 14. In adjacent Kozhikode, IUML is contesting in four. IUML is contesting in a total of 27 seats and is the second largest party in the UDF after the Congress. Party senior leader P K Kunhalikutty had even quit the Lok Sabha MP post and is contesting from Vengara in Malappuram in the Assembly polls.
Political analysts feel that apart from the attempts of BJP to improve its position in Kerala, the reports of alleged nexus between BJP and CPM and CPM top leaders silence on allegations like love jihad against the community seems to be creating a sense of requirement among the Muslim community to highlight the Muslim identity in the state and this may help the IUML.
According to social critic Hameed Chennamangaloor, earlier there used to be a trend of Jamaat-e-Islami favouring candidates from both LDF and UDF depending upon their equations, but generally favoured the LDF.
However, it seems that they are now quite pro-UDF. Hence the UDF may benefit in the constituencies in which they have a considerable vote base. Organisations like PFI would not be favouring growth of BJP and Communist parties and hence the UDF would get the benefit, he said.
Meanwhile, Welfare Party chairman Hameed Vaniyambalam alleged that the CPM was trying to create a communal divide for vote bank gains, which was what BJP wanted.
The CPM is trying to make immediate gains, but such attempts were not good for society in the long run. He also said that the Welfare Party’s stand against the BJP was very clear and hence it would vote for candidates of parties that could ensure BJP’s defeat.
The Welfare Party and SDPI had considerably improved their position in Kerala in the recent Local Body elections.
CPM leaders, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had been alleging of UDF’s nexus with outfits like Welfare Party quite some time.
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