What's next for AIADMK after failure of EPS-OPS arrangement?

For most of the five decades that the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has existed, during which it has ruled Tamil Nadu for 30 years, the party had been headed by a single leader who was strong and charismatic in equal measure -- first, it was MGR; later, it was Jayalalithaa.

Naturally, therefore, questions were raised on the longevity of the dual leadership arrangement when ‘big brother’ BJP brought the then warring factions of O Panneerselvam and Edappadi K Palaniswami together – known as OPS and EPS -- to steer the AIADMK ship following Jayalalithaa’s death. This was to keep V K Sasikala, then serving her prison term in a disproportionate assets case, and her family, away from the party.

However, five years after the “forced marriage”, the dual leadership arrangement can no longer hold, and the party is reverting to the “time-tested” unitary leadership. It was an open secret in Tamil Nadu that Palaniswami, who enjoys a brute majority in the legislature party and other forums, was calling the shots in the AIADMK and Panneerselvam, technically the no. 1 in the party, always signed on the dotted line.

Also read: Will BJP intervene in AIADMK saga and help OPS?

But Palaniswami decided to pull the plug publicly earlier this month, and he struck suddenly at Panneerselvam, who had lost his support base in the party long back. On June 14, the AIADMK called its district secretaries and headquarters’ office-bearers for a meeting to discuss the agenda for the General Council meeting on June 23.

As the meeting was about to end, the Palaniswami camp enacted a pre-drafted script. There was a chorus to revert to unitary leadership and to dissolve the current arrangement. And many who spoke at the meeting proposed Palaniswami for the leadership role. What followed was a groundswell of support for Palaniswami among the members of the General Council, Executive Council, district secretaries, and legislators.

Palaniswami knew Panneerselvam’s support base was negligible and thought that his taking over as AIADMK's general secretary would be a smooth affair. But Panneerselvam didn’t take it lying down this time around – though many of his actions earned him more sympathy than support. He moved the courts and got Palaniswami’s elevation postponed

Things had appeared to be working between EPS and OPS till the third week of May when the AIADMK began scouting for candidates for the Rajya Sabha elections. Differences between them delayed the release of the candidate list, which brought bad press for the AIADMK, which under Jayalalithaa had always outsmarted other political parties, especially arch-rival the DMK.

"The Rajya Sabha impasse was the breaking point," a senior AIADMK leader told DH on condition of anonymity. "That is what prompted EPS and his supporters to fast-track the move toward unitary leadership, though it was in the works for at least six months. The EPS camp felt that OPS was taking too much advantage of the coordinator post despite lacking popular support in the party, and hence they decided to strike."

Also read | People will punish EPS camp: AIADMK leader Panneerselvam

Panneerselvam has now taken the battle to the Election Commission of India (ECI) but political observers say OPS, who stood in for Jayalalithaa as CM twice when she had to quit the post, should know that this is essentially a political fight. He might join Sasikala and continue his fight against EPS but the long-time aide of Jayalalithaa does not enjoy support in the party now.

“At the most, Palaniswami’s elevation can be delayed, it cannot be stopped,” the leader said.

"If there is no intervention from the judiciary or ECI, Palaniswami will be unanimously elected as the third general secretary of the AIADMK," another party leader said.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh thinks Palaniswami has chosen the right time to take control of the party. “There are no elections round the corner. This is the time for Palaniswami to consolidate his position within the party. He has handled it well. Everyone knew from the beginning that the dual leadership arrangement was doomed to fail.”

It was an "uneasy cohabitation" for both OPS and EPS as the arrangement had been stitched for the survival of the AIADMK, which was till then a one man (M G Ramachandran) and one woman (Jayalalithaa) party, Singh said.

The process of taking over the AIADMK would be "easy and almost smooth" for Palaniswami, said political analyst Prof P Ramajayam, adding that the former CM would face challenges once he began to helm the party – he will have to handle the ruling DMK on one hand and ally the BJP on the other.

“The election of Palaniswami, when it happens, will bring in a paradigm shift in AIADMK’s history. MGR and Jayalalithaa were mass leaders and immensely popular among people. Though EPS is an organisation man, he is not charismatic. He has to prove his mettle and fight hard to keep the AIADMK’s core vote bank among the downtrodden intact,” Ramajayam said.

Singh said Palaniswami faces the arduous task of convincing the Mukulathors – the dominant caste to which Panneerselvam and Sasikala belong – that he will take care of their interests too.

“While leaders from south Tamil Nadu might be solidly behind him, Palaniswami, who hails from the western part of the state, will have to gain the confidence of the cadres from those districts. He should be careful in avoiding criticism that he favours one caste over the other,” he added.

Ramajayam thinks Palaniswami will be heavily dependent on his social capital, organisational skills and the strength of the cadre to run the party while it occupies the Opposition benches in the Assembly. The AIADMK has always faced the tag of being an ineffective Opposition party in the past.

"AIADMK cadres had been longing for a grassroots leader and they may have found that leader in Palaniswami," Ramajayam said. "The challenges before him are plenty but if he manages to face and address them, he will further consolidate his base in the party."