Study identifies states with high chance of Covid hotspots

States such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh were the hotspots for the Covid-19 pandemic in India and travelling needs to be monitored, according to a comprehensive study by the Indian Institute of Technology-Mandi.

Researchers reviewed the past pandemics and found common patterns between the Spanish Flu (1918-1919), H1N1 (2014-2015), Swine Flu (2009- 2010), and Covid-19 (2019-2021) outbreaks.

It shows water bodies have a strong influence on a region’s microclimate in terms of temperature and humidity, contributing significantly to regional climate change. It is commonly referred to as the lake effect.

The states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh were the hotspots.

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“In almost all of these states, international migration is a significant factor. For this reason, the researchers recommend that in future cases of pandemic outbreaks, travel to and from these states should be carefully monitored,” a note by IIT-Mandi said.

The research was led by Dr Sarita Azad, Associate Professor, School of Basic Science, IIT-Mandi, and co-authored by Neeraj Poonia, research scholar, IIT-Mandi.

The research findings have been published in Current Science, a prestigious peer-reviewed journal.

Explaining the key findings of this research, Dr Azad said, “There has been a striking similarity in the focal point and route of transmission of different epidemics in India, such as Spanish flu, H1N1, Swine flu and Covid-19. Mostly all the pandemics have started and found their epicentres in the northern, western, and southern parts of India.”

“Later, we also found that districts with direct access to large water bodies had a sudden increase in cases during monsoon (as high as 800 per cent) compared to the preceding season. Hence, strict precautionary measures should be imposed in these districts before the beginning of monsoon season during an outbreak,” she added.

Furthermore, the researchers have examined the temperature variations across districts that are close to large bodies of water to understand the spread of Covid-19 in these areas. The average minimum and maximum temperatures in these districts are about 3 and 5 degrees Celsius lower than neighbourhoods in July, which is attributed to the lake effect. The cooler climate conditions may have contributed to the increase in cases in districts that are close to water bodies.

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