Does AIMIM stand a chance in Gujarat?

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), first-time contestant in Gujarat Assembly Elections, had earlier announced its participation in this year’s polls. The party chief, Asaduddin Owaisi, announced that the party is looking to contest in the polls from 30 seats out of the total 182 and has already declared six candidates.

The party fielded its state chief and former Congress MLA Sabir Kabliwala, from Jamalpur-Khadia in Ahmedabad. In 2012 Assembly elections, Kabliwala had contested from Jamalpur-Khadia, which has nearly 60 per cent Muslim population, as an Independent after he was a denied ticket by the Congress, which fielded Samir Khan Vajir Khan Pathan. The division of votes may have led to Bharatiya Janata Party's Bhushan Ashok Bhatt winning. Bhushan Bhatt secured 38.6 per cent of the votes against 33.5 per cent of INC’s votes, whereas Kabliwala got around 24.5 per cent of the votes.

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In 2017, Kabliwala had withdrawn his candidature in support of Congress candidate Imran Khedawala. In the 2017 Assembly elections, Congress candidate Imran Yusufbhai Khedawala won with 75,346 votes against BJP’s Bhushan Ashok Bhatt who earned 46,007 votes.

The party’s Dalit face Kaushika Parmar will contest from Danilimda seat of Ahmedabad district and Wasim Qureshi from Surat-East. Danilimda seat is currently held by Congress while Surat-East is with BJP. Owaisi also announced the candidature of Shahnawazkhan Pathan from Bapunagar in Ahmedabad and Abdul Bashir Shaikh from Limbayat in Surat.

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Owaisi is doing his part by frequently visiting Gujarat to garner Muslim votes. Though the matter of how many seats AIMIM, dubbed as ‘BJP’s B Team’, will win remains vague, it is believed that the party will divide the opposition’s vote share. Most seats that AIMIM is focusing on are Congress strongholds, which may mean a polarisation and division of Muslim votes, which will help shove power towards BJP.

In earlier elections, the Congress was considered the only major contender for Muslim votes in Gujarat, but this time the main opposition party is facing stiff competition from smaller outfits to get minority electors on its side. The party is facing competition from AIMIM and AAP. In the 2017 elections, just three Muslim MLAs, all from the Congress party, had won. The number, however, was better than 2012 when there were just two MLAs.

In the overall state population of 6.5 crore, Muslims account for roughly 11 per cent and have a sizeable presence in around 25 Assembly seats. The BJP, which has been ruling the state for more than two decades now, is not seen as a viable option for Muslim voters which have a sizeable presence in over two dozen seats in the 182-member state Assembly. The Congress party had in 2017 given tickets to six Muslims candidates in the state as against seven in 2012. The BJP is known for not giving any tickets to Muslims candidates.

Elections to the 182-member state Assembly will take place over two phases on December 1 and 5.

(With inputs from PTI)