A grim picture of climate change in India

A report released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences last week presents a very grim picture of the nature of climate change and its impact on the country in the coming decades. It is the first-ever climate change assessment report prepared for India by experts in the country's research institutions. Reports of the UN’s IPCC and other agencies have looked at climate change in India as part of a global phenomenon and sometimes studied some ecologically important regions like the Himalayas. But it is the first time that a national assessment and projections have been made specifically for India, taking into consideration factors at regional and local levels. The report is based on a study of the changes in all climate-related phenomena in the past many years and is very comprehensive. Its observations and conclusions deserve serious consideration.

The report predicts that the average temperature in India by the end of this century will rise by about 4.4 degrees Celsius relative to the 1976-2005 average. The average rise during the 1901-2018 period was 0.7 degrees Celsius. The sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the 1951-2015 period was one degree Celsius, which was more than the global average. The report concludes that there will be a decrease in monsoon rainfall and an increase in temperatures which will raise sea levels and cause more severe droughts and cyclones. There will be many other extreme weather events. The changes will lead to a decline in agricultural output and freshwater resources and damage to public infrastructure.

Many of the changes cannot be correctly foreseen now, but they are bound to be drastic. They will disrupt and upset lives and will lead to major social, economic and political changes. The report says that there is compelling evidence to show that human activities have contributed to the changes in climate patterns, but it does not discuss the mitigation and adaptation measures. It should prompt the government to plan and implement steps to counter the threat and to reduce the impact of the changes. It has prepared and released the report and so has the responsibility to act on it. It is also necessary to undertake other studies in various sectors and regions, because in a big and diverse country like India the impact is likely to vary. Remedial actions need to be taken urgently as the disaster is fast approaching. The challenges of today, like the coronavirus, will go away sooner or later, but the damage done by climate change will be irreversible and may make the earth unliveable.