A troubled China risked Tawang skirmish

At 3 am on December 9, 2022, about 300 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops entered the Indian territory for a land grab at Yangtse in Eastern Tawang. The PLA had carefully planned the transgression, choosing a night with heavy cloud cover at about 17000 feet in a hilly-forested area covered with snow. This time it went wrong, as the Indian Army had advanced intelligence about its plans and had been carefully monitoring the frequent PLA patrols in this area for some time. Also, the Chinese chose the wrong day for the clash, as both the outgoing and incoming Indian military units were present in that area.

The Indian Army gave a solid beating to the PLA invaders, which were armed, as in the past, with barbed wire clubs, sticks and other equipment, forcing them to retreat. As per reports, 23 Chinese and 9 Indian soldiers were injured in the physical scuffle. China has focused on capturing a peak at Yangtse for a long time, as it would provide vital information on the presence of the Indian troops in the Tawang area. The Indian troops are dominating the watershed in this area which is critical to obstruct China's advance.

Tawang also has politico-religious significance as the sixth Dalai Lama was born in Tawang. China has declared that it would not recognise a new Dalai Lama born outside its territories; it, therefore, has an interest in annexing Tawang. The Chinese PLA had made similar attempts in the past to capture this peak, but each time the Indian Army had repulsed them.

The Chinese incursions in the Indian territories in the past were often related to some political motives. This time, the motive could have been the 'Yudh Abhyas' exercise held by the Indian and American troops at Auli in Uttarakhand province, about 100 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which had upset Beijing.

China wanted to punish India for holding these exercises against its wishes. Another factor was the weak position of Chinese President Xi Jinping at home as he had to resile from his three years old 'Zero Covid' policy following widespread protests at home. Xi is drawing considerable flak from the failure of this policy which has caused immense suffering to millions of Chinese and huge damage to the Chinese economy, causing significant unemployment and loss of jobs and earnings.

Xi's third term as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and eventually the President of the country and his other policies, such as anti-corruption campaigns, harsh suppression of dissent, centralisation of all powers and filling of top party positions at the 20th party congress in November 2022 by his favourites have alienated many senior former and current CCP leaders, party cadres and common people. In recent protests, several students and others asked for Xi's resignation, surrender of power by the CCP and democratic elections.

Xi's "rejuvenation" of the Chinese nation, which involves retrieving disputed territories from its neighbours such as India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan and Taiwan and seeking global supremacy, has brought him into conflict with these other countries such as the US. In the past, the CCP rulers, when weak, launched aggression against their neighbours to divert attention from their acute domestic problems and obtain popular support by playing the nationalism card.

After the Chinese intrusions at Pangong Tso, Hot Springs, Gogra, Depsang and Doklam in recent years, the China-India border has become heavily militarised with the deployment of a large number of troops and advanced weapons by China, followed by India. With the rise in Chinese deception, India is continuously monitoring the Chinese deployments on the borders with satellite imagery, drones and human intelligence, particularly in sensitive strategic areas.

Modernising border infrastructure and deploying additional troops have improved India's ability to move forces rapidly in difficult terrain. Land grabbing by China by stealth has thus become very difficult. In face-to-face encounters, the Chinese soldiers have been no match for the professional and valiant Indian troops and have suffered heavy casualties and injuries in recent encounters.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament on December 13 that the Indian Army had stopped the PLA from transgressing the LAC on December 9 and compelled them to return to their posts. China, which hides the truth from its people to always portray the CCP and its leaders in a positive light, said through its spokesman that the Indian troops "illegally" crossed the border and "obstructed" the Chinese troops and the "situation on the China-India border is stable overall".

Both sides are downplaying this incident for their own reasons. India does not want an escalation in the conflict with China, given its chairmanship of the UN Security Council in December 2022, G-20 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023. The CCP and its leader Xi Jinping can't admit openly that their troops had suffered reverses and failed in their land-grabbing efforts to save his tottering image.

Considering that the Indian economy is now becoming the best-performing major economy, its global reputation is on the rise and the Chinese economy is weakening due to the faulty policies of its rulers decline in China's population and productivity, the massive surge in its debt levels, the increase in the US-China rivalry and the latter's perception of India supporting the US policies, there may be more such intrusions by the PLA in the future backed by more troops. China does not want India to rise and challenge its dominance in this region and has been working systematically to thwart India's progress.

Our armed forces would need to be on high alert to gauge the actions, movements and shenanigans of the Chinese side. Similarly, our intelligence collection on the LAC, particularly around strategic areas, would need to be mounted round the clock; the deployments of advanced weaponry, new technologies and troops would need to deter the Chinese capabilities. Only a comprehensive national response by India would be able to maintain peace, stability and tranquillity on the borders and defeat
the ulterior designs of our northern adversary.

(Yogesh Gupta is a former ambassador)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.