Attack on Imran: Pakistan again at crossroads

The already dark, murky world of Pakistan's 'deep state' and fractious domestic politics will descend into further turmoil interspersed with intrigue following the assassination attempt on former prime minister Imran Khan on November 3.

This turbulence is unlikely to subside anytime soon as the schism among the political parties, as well as the one between the civilian-military leadership, grows sharper. Besides, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader's no-holds-barred attacks on the 'deep state' have also left it shaken to the core.

Also Read — Pakistan media watchdog bars TV channels from airing Imran Khan’s speeches

Khan is now likely to acquire even greater popularity among the masses, emerging as a 'martyr' who could have lost his life fighting for the 'cause' of rescuing his country from impending implosion. As noted Pakistani strategic analyst Ayesha Siddiqa said, "He deserves to live rather than become a martyr."

The former swashbuckling cricketer was already riding a huge wave of popularity, seeking to don the mantle of a so-called 'messiah' for the masses as he took on the Shehbaz Sharif-led government and all-powerful Pakistan's military establishment since his ouster as PM in April this year.

Also Read — Pak PM Shehbaz demands 'full court commission' to probe Imran Khan’s assassination bid allegation

Once known for his playboy image, the born-again Muslim has also played the religious card to boot to woo the masses. He described the Shehbaz government as a "banana republic" and accused the PM of being a Mir Jafar, conspiring with the Americans to topple his government.

He was equally trenchant in his criticism of the military establishment, describing it as "traitors". Describing the mighty military thus would have normally been unthinkable for a politician in Pakistan. But then Khan knew he could rock the military's boat as his utterances were gaining traction.

Already, just a day after the attack in Wazirabad, Khan addressed the nation while still in hospital, vowing to return to the street – he was shot while on the 'long march' from Lahore to Islamabad aimed at turning the heat further on GHQ Rawalpindi for early elections, among other things. Clearly, he wasn't willing to let go of the opportunity to garner more support.

The attack has given Khan the opportunity to twist the knife yet again into the Pak military and civilian government. He has accused three persons – the PM, the Interior Minister and a senior ISI officer – of plotting the attack against him.

Thus far, three men have been arrested for firing the shots. The man arrested first on the day of the attack has `confessed' he was acting on his own, in a claim that has stretched credulity all around.

The embattled Pak military is also grappling with the prospect of getting a new army chief after General Qamar Ahmed Bajwa's tenure ends on November 29. No names of those who could be considered for this powerful post have as yet been sent to the PM by General Bajwa.

For all one knows, Gen Bajwa may well seek to further extend his six-year reign to steady the boat. He's known not to be averse to an extension.

For India, even though its ties with Pakistan have been in cold storage for a long time now, any prolonged instability in the neighbourhood does not bode well. Hours after the attack, India said it was keeping a close watch on the situation in Pakistan.

The Pak generals, already under pressure ever since their protégé went 'rogue', may find it challenging to contain Khan in the wake of the sympathy the attack will garner for him. Faced with unrelenting attacks from Khan, the military establishment was forced to hold an unprecedented press conference late last month to defend itself against accusations made by the PTI leader.

Nothing could be more indicative of the impact Khan's rhetoric against the military has had than the fact that the director-general of the notorious ISI, Lt-General Nadeen Anjum, himself was forced to address the media. Also present alongside was DG, ISPR Lt-General Babar Iftikhar. Clearly, the 'deep state' found itself cornered for the first time since Khan was ousted as PM through a no-confidence motion in April.

The ouster is widely believed to have been orchestrated by the Pak generals who were becoming increasingly uneasy with Khan's mistaken belief that, as PM, he could actually run the government all by himself. Khan, of course, was delusional in believing that he would have a free hand in governance, with GHQ Rawalpindi happily taking a backseat.

But that was not to be. After all, the generals have run Pakistan for decades, even as the facade of an elected civilian government has been maintained from time to time. So when they found Khan becoming too big for his boots and actually seeking to do the job of PM, he was simply eased out.

If the 'deep state' thought this would put an end to the growing ambitions of their once blue-eyed boy who had become PM with its blessings, it was not to be. Khan's populist pronouncements found resonance among ordinary, impoverished Pakistanis reeling under a battered economy, galloping inflation and the recent devastating floods. Forgotten for now by the masses is Khan's own questionable record of governance as PM.

The military may have thought it had sealed Khan's political future when he was disqualified from remaining or being chosen as a member of Parliament by Pakistan's Election Commission last month for failure to account for the monetary proceeds received from the sale of gifts received as PM. But the Khan juggernaut appears unstoppable for now.

While Khan's tactics have had the Pak military ducking for cover, it's too early to say who will be the eventual victor. Pakistan is at a crossroads once again in its turbulent history.

(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.