Bangladesh on the brink this Victory Day

Bangladesh celebrates this year’s Victory Day (Vijay Diwas) amidst significant challenges posed by anti-liberation forces. On December 16, 1971, Bangladesh achieved liberation from Pakistan with decisive support from the Indian armed forces. During the war, anti-liberation groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, infamously known as Razakars, sided with Pakistan despite the economic exploitation and brutal atrocities inflicted on the Bangladeshi population by the Pakistani regime.

Today, these forces seem to be reasserting themselves following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, seeking to exploit the prevailing political instability. However, recent diplomatic efforts, including the visit of India’s foreign secretary, have provided a glimmer of hope in maintaining the stability of bilateral relations.

At this juncture, pro-liberation forces in Bangladesh are striving to preserve the legacy of the liberation war against growing threats from radical Islamist factions. Victory Day, observed annually on December 16, is not only a national celebration for Bangladesh but also a defining moment in South Asia’s history — marking one of India’s most remarkable military victories and a testament to its commitment to humanitarian intervention.

The seeds of the 1971 Indo-Pak war were sown in March 1971, when the Pakistan army launched ‘Operation Searchlight’ to suppress the autonomy movement led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League. It resulted in mass killings and a humanitarian crisis, driving over 10 million refugees into India, particularly to West Bengal, Assam and Tripura, creating social and economic strain.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw, India meticulously prepared for military intervention. The Indian armed forces, collaborating with the Mukti Bahini (Bengali freedom fighters), executed a coordinated campaign of unparalleled strategic and tactical brilliance. The conflict officially began on December 3, 1971, following Pakistan’s preemptive airstrikes on Indian airfields.

In just 13 days, Indian forces achieved a decisive victory. The Indian Navy’s blockade severed East Pakistan’s supply lines, while the Indian Air Force secured air dominance. On the ground, Indian troops advanced rapidly, dismantling Pakistani defences. On December 16, 1971, Lt Gen AAK Niazi of the Pakistan army signed the Instrument of Surrender in Dhaka, marking the largest military capitulation since World War II and the birth of Bangladesh.

As Bangladesh commemorates this historic day, it faces political and social crossroads. Sheikh Hasina’s ouster has strained India-Bangladesh relations, disrupting stability and bilateral cooperation. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus struggles to maintain order amidst rising communal tensions and declining law and order.

Minority communities, including Hindus, who constitute about 8% of Bangladesh’s 170 million population, face escalating violence. Attacks on Hindu temples, the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka, and the arrest of Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das on sedition charges have exacerbated tensions. These developments have drawn sharp reactions from India, as they risk the progress made in fostering stability and inclusivity.

Bilateral trade, which reached $14 billion in 2023–24, and robust security cooperation are now at risk. The violence and political instability threaten to derail economic and strategic ties vital to both nations.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s recent visit to Dhaka marks a critical effort to mend strained ties. His discussions with Bangladeshi officials, including interim leader Muhammad Yunus, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid
Hossein and Foreign Secretary Mohammad Jashim Uddin, focused on minority welfare, border management and trade enhancement.

Bangladeshi authorities acknowledged 88 attacks on minorities between August and October, registering cases and making arrests. Misri emphasised the need for stronger measures to protect minority rights and foster communal harmony.

Beyond immediate concerns, the discussions covered broader priorities, including trade, connectivity, and cooperation in water and energy sectors. Yunus reaffirmed his commitment to addressing mutual concerns, describing the India-Bangladesh relationship as “very solid” and urging India to help “clear the clouds” overshadowing ties.

There are indications that a Bangladeshi delegation, potentially including Muktijoddhas (freedom fighters), may attend Vijay Diwas celebrations at the Eastern Command Headquarters in Kolkata. This gesture would symbolise the enduring shared legacy of 1971 and could foster renewed collaboration.

The evolving political landscape in South Asia, including recent government changes in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, underscores the importance of India’s ties with Bangladesh. Despite current strains, the foundations
of India-Bangladesh relations remain robust, built on shared history, economic interdependence and regional security imperatives.

Victory Day is a reminder of the sacrifices made for Bangladesh’s independence and the importance of India-Bangladesh cooperation.

(The writer is Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)