BJP fighting for victory margins in Gujarat

The BJP is not fighting the Gujarat state election to avert defeat but to increase its victory margins and win a greater number of seats in the 182-member assembly. In the last state election in 2017, the nation's pre-eminent party won just 99 seats, although that figure went up to 112 through defections from the Congress and by-elections. Still, it was not an ego-boosting result from the first state election after Narendra Modi shifted to Delhi in 2014. And with the 2024 national poll now just two years away, the PM would no doubt want a greater assertion of his popularity in the home state where he created the cult of his own leadership.

When the BJP came to power in the state in 1995, it won 121 seats; that peaked at 127 in the first election with Narendra Modi as chief minister in 2002, after the vicious riots earlier that year. In the second Modi-led election in 2007, the BJP got 117 seats; in 2012, it bagged 115 seats. The peak, therefore, for the BJP was 127 seats and the lowest 99. It never came close to the record of 149 seats won by the Congress under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985, when he forged a social alliance referred to as KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim).

This social engineering actually excluded the Patidars or Patels, a powerful and vocal social grouping in Gujarat, rooted in the rural hinterland but also with a strong middle-class presence in urban centres in the nation's most urbanised state and the Gujarati diaspora across the world. Therefore, in the 1985 success of the Congress lay the seeds for the future growth and strength of the BJP. After the 2002 bloodbath, Hindutva and a strong anti-Muslim consciousness (that has older roots) also came to dominate the politics of the state.

This went hand in hand with the leadership cult perpetuated by Narendra Modi that would put all past Gujarat BJP leaders in the shade and eventually do so with all BJP leaders across the country. He is still the primary figure in Gujarat politics, and the faceless/nameless chief ministers who have been anointed after his shift to New Delhi are just stand-ins for the prime minister.

In the last state election of 2017, when the BJP's performance dipped, it was largely due to the Patidar agitation then led by Hardik Patel, that foregrounded issues of rural distress and lack of growth (Hardik is now a member of the BJP). These issues still persist in the state, where the public health and education sectors are also in shambles. Yet, Gujarat is a state with very diverse realities in urban areas, where the BJP is stronger and performs better than in rural parts and tribal districts.

Having understood the dynamics of the first past the post system better than other political parties, the BJP is currently working to retain its own bases through a promise of investment even as it offers an ideological Hindutva menu as that is expected to prevail over minor discontents. Simultaneously, it would rely on some division of the opposition vote-share with a third party, the AAP, also entering the fray.

We have therefore seen in the run-up to the state polls, the state of Gujarat bagged four industrial projects that Maharashtra was hoping to get. Media reports put the value of these investments at Rs 1.79 lakh crore. Simultaneously, symbolic acts that reinforce the majoritarian psychology have taken place with regular frequency in the last few months, starting with the release of 11 men convicted of the 2002 rape and murder of Gujarat riot victim, Bilkis Bano and her family. A challenge to this in the Supreme Court would bring out the fact that the convicts' release was cleared by the Home Ministry of India, presided over by Amit Shah, the right hand of the PM since his days in Gujarat and the main executioner of real-politick in the regime.

And now, on the eve of the election schedule for the state being announced, we have the declaration that Gujarat has plans to introduce a uniform civil code and has formed a committee for the purpose. Since such a policy is perceived to take away personal religious laws for Muslims, it fits neatly into the ideological direction of the state and nation. This may, however, be an election-eve declaration for public consumption as there are layers of complexities in bringing about a uniform civil code that extends beyond "showing their place" to the minorities of India.

All of this is the backdrop to the fact that the real campaign is being conducted by the prime minister who has carried Gujarat on his shoulders since 2002. Having covered every Gujarat election after 2002, I would discover a step-by-step progression of the persona. In 2002 he emerged as the Hindu Hridaya Samrat (Emperor of Hindu hearts) but was blacklisted by sections of the national and international media. By 2007, Narendra Modi had worked to change that as he packaged himself as the friend of industrialists, a supporter of the free market and a protector of Gujarat. He would organise summits named Vibrant Gujarat and the big guns of Indian industry, from Ratan Tata to Mukesh Ambani, would show up and shower praise on the CM.

The coming together of Hindutva with Big Business began in Modi's Gujarat, and by the time he moved to Delhi, another mega empire was emerging in the rise of Gautam Adani even as Modi masks were first seen bobbing up and down in the enthusiastic crowds that gathered to see their chief minister.

By the 2012 state election, Narendra Modi felt the need for a costume change, so the campaign's motif became Swami Vivekananda. Bike riders, storm-troopers and hysterical crowds wore T-shirts with the image of Swami Vivekanand in the front and that of an introspective Modi standing beside a rath at the back even as more Modi masks were visible. His victory would be a formality, after which the shift to national politics and conquests of new territories began.

In 2022 Gujarat, there are new props, such as the world's largest stadium in Ahmedabad, named after Narendra Modi, in which Modi gave a knockout performance at the inauguration of the National Games at the end of September. So far, the big events built around the PM have been in Hindi, so a live TV audience across the country can follow. Once the Election Commission announces the dates, the PM will also shift to speaking in Gujarati at various venues and rallies. He would like to knock out the opposition, but numerically and arithmetically, that's not happened in Gujarat though the BJP and Modi always win.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author)