Congress’ poll loss a major blow to allies

Every war springs up some unintended consequences and collateral damages — but seldom does the collateral damage exceed the intended consequences. The just-concluded assembly elections have proved to be an exception.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeated the Congress in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. Still, it is Congress’ allies in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance who are more hurt — particularly Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee and Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal. This is because the poll outcome has sent a message that if the BJP can improve its position in these states it will continue to dominate north and central India, and the chances of removing it from power are bleak. Regional parties which were betting on the Congress to defeat the BJP in the assembly polls will now have to redraw their general election plans.

The Congress, which won the polls in Telangana, seems to have taken this defeat in its stride. It, however, appears that the I.N.D.I.A. alliance is yet to recover from the December 3rd poll shock, evident from the rumblings of discontent from within and the postponement of its first meeting after the poll results.

The allies are upset because the Narendra Modi government, through central agencies, has relentlessly put pressure on them. Since the early years after Independence, corruption at high places has periodically been an issue in Indian politics, and central government agencies have been allegedly used to force leaders such as Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati to fall in line. However, never have these agencies been used against the political class in such a brazenly partisan manner. It matters little to the government that such partisan use of the agencies is hurting the moral thread of the anti-corruption struggle.

Banerjee’s government in West Bengal and Kejriwal’s government in Delhi are facing the heat of this partisan anti-corruption drive the most. Other Congress allies, particularly the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu or the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar who are in power in their respective states, know that the Sword of Damocles is hanging over their heads too.

Both Banerjee and Kejriwal remain fierce critics of the Modi regime and it appears that for the agencies to go slow on them this government must be voted out of office. Both leaders, as do others in the Opposition space, time and again reiterate that they are being unfairly targeted for opposing the BJP government. Over the past few months, Banerjee has reassured her party that the political conspiracy against her would fall through when there is a change of government at the Centre. In August, she said that she had inside information that her nephew Abhishek Banerjee would be arrested before the 2024 general elections. In 2022, while addressing a rally in Kolkata she said, “I promise we will remove the BJP from power at the centre in 2024….Today you are in power, so you are abusing me. Remember that the day you will be out, I will abuse you.”

Similar statements have been made by AAP leaders as well.

There will be no respite of TMC and AAP leaders from such agony if the BJP retains power in 2024. Meanwhile, RSS insiders whom this author spoke to say the focus hereon for the BJP will be the eastern and southern states. Thus, one expects more pressure on TMC in the future.

As far as AAP is concerned, its frontline leaders such as Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh, and Satyendar Jain are in jail. From the TMC, the list of influential ministers and leaders in jail include Partha Chattopadhyay, Jyotipriya Mullick, and Anubrata Mondal. Central agencies have reached the doorsteps of AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as well.

Another reason why the Congress can take a relatively relaxed approach is because the central agencies are not hounding its leaders to the extent it is going after non-NDA regional party leaders.

The loss is a setback for the Congress but it has more time to absorb the shock and take more time to process it. Regional political parties, especially those in power at the state level, do not have that luxury; and that’s why Congress’ defeat is hurting its allies more than it is the grand old party.

Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH).