COVID-19 has bought new headaches for regional parties

Centre has become stronger and with it the BJP; regional parties & states where they hold power could become more become dependent on Central assistance

A crisis like COVID-19 offers a plethora of political opportunities and it seems the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has understood it better than the others. The ruling regime appears to be taking advantage of the crisis in such a way that regional parties, dependent on confrontational politics, will find the going tough in the days ahead.

From its experience of the last six years, Team Modi knows that the most important icon of the politics of confrontation is Trinamool Congress’ Mamata Banerjee. From demonetisation to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and National Register of Citizens, she was at the forefront of political movements against the BJP-ruled Centre. But she is just the most prominent face of a group of states where the BJP is in opposition – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Telangana and Maharashtra. Politics between the Centre and the states has of late become a prominent feature of India’s COVID-19 management. A power struggle is on – with the Centre attempting to dictate terms and the states resisting it – and is likely to become a fixture of politics in the COVID-19 era.

Let’s examine the situation in Bengal to begin with.

Governor vs CM

Ever since the May 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP has been trying to corner the Bengal CM politically. The stakes are high for it as it hopes to capture power in the Assembly elections to be held in April-May 2021. Therefore, it is not surprising that the party is trying to use the present situation to disturb Mamata Banerjee in what will be the last and perhaps the most crucial leg of her second innings as chief minister.

The game, in this instance, was started by Jagdeep Dhankhar, West Bengal governor. He set an altogether new standard for politicking by a governor during the lockdown. On Twitter and through open letters, he held the chief minister and her government guilty on three counts: Hiding the actual number of COVID-19 deaths; not conducting enough tests and poor implementation of the lockdown (his insinuation was about Muslim areas particularly, as he used the word ‘appeasement’ in this context).

Home Minister Amit Shah followed by sending central teams to Bengal who criticised the state’s actions rather vehemently. Under duress, the state administration was forced to declare the total number of deaths (adding up figures of COVID-19 deaths and COVID-19 plus co-morbidity deaths), and it fuelled further criticism. The figures showed that Bengal had (and still has) the highest death rate in the country.

Opposition-ruled states at a disadvantage?

After winning round one, the attack shifted to another key issue: Why is Bengal not taking the initiative to bring its migrant labourers home by trains? If round one was aimed at conveying the idea that people are not secure in Mamata’s regime, round two has been about the insensitivity of the state government towards migrant labourers.

Union Railways Minister Piyush Goyal pointed out that states like Bengal, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand were not giving permission for sufficient ‘Shramik Special’ trains that could bring their migrant labourers back from other states. This prompted a war of words between him and the states which denied the allegations. In his episode too, it was West Bengal and the Centre that went head-to-head, with the minister holding that while BJP-ruled UP had already received 400 trains, Bengal by comparison had received just seven trains with migrant labourers.

The question being raised in some Opposition quarters is how could UP manage to get so many trains so soon? Is it because BJP-run state governments and BJP and RSS workers helped to enlist UP labourers and book tickets for them? Perhaps the case was similar with Bihar and Odisha, known to be friendly with the Centre as well? They also believe that the Centre is providing them with ideas about testing and quarantining of labourers.

Centre’s hold on purse strings

The scope of such thinking will only increase in the near future. Consider the impact of this dynamic on recent reforms announced as part of the Centre’s Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and investment opportunities it will throw up. Even before the Centre’s announcement was out, UP CM Yogi Adityanath had already brought ordinances to suspend labour laws in his state. MP had also announced changes in its labour laws. Karnataka is expected to follow suit. There is worry that UP, MP, Karnataka and Gujarat (all BJP ruled states) may bag a lion’s share of new investments and create many new jobs leaving the rest behind. Telangana CM, K Chandrasekhar Rao, meanwhile has accused the Centre of treating states like “beggars” and trying to dominate them by imposing conditions – implementing reform measures announced by the Centre – for access to more money in these difficult times.

It indicates that in the COVID-19 era, a state's success will depend to a greater extent than it did earlier on Centre's assistance. Investment, health infrastructure, PDS (‘One Nation One Card’ has been opposed by Bengal) or even agricultural prosperity, could be issues where states will have to ‘cooperate’ with the Centre. The Congress could be somewhat better placed to fight this new trend by initiating more coordination among the states ruled by it. But it will be difficult for regional parties whose survival depends on a confrontation with the Centre at the political level. A new political reality is slowly taking shape that may require the coming together of all opposition forces if they want to have bargaining power vis-a-vis the Centre.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of books including, A Naxal Story. He is a deputy editor at the Bengali daily, Aajkal)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the view of DH.