<p>The Union interim budget presented on Thursday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is a vote-on-account, and in that sense is a limited exercise that signals a lot but can commit very little.</p><p> It uses a golden frame to showcase the path that has been tread and presents the hope of “unprecedented development” and “golden moments” in the next five years. </p><p>Pre-election budgets tend to go that way, and to that extent this one is no different. It is interested more in building the air of achievement, except that the “profound positive transformation” it seeks to present has already been hawked by the government from various other quarters. </p><p>This is therefore one more occasion to turn up the amp. It is redeemed by the fact that it exudes fiscal restraint, not overt populism. In terms of core numbers, the fiscal deficit estimate for 2024-25 has a sharp reduction, down to 5.1 per cent, which is positive as a trendline. </p><p>The focus on reprioritising of expenditure in recent budgets by enhancing provision of capital expenditure is a welcome move. However, there is a question of budget integrity when the 2023-24 budget estimates of capital expenditure are reduced (down by Rs 50,715 crore) in the revised estimate. </p>.<p>The government says it has done a lot. The PM Mudra Yojana has sanctioned 43 crore loans aggregating to Rs 22.5 lakh crore for entrepreneurial aspirations of the youth; 30 crore of these Mudra loans have been given to women entrepreneurs; government had set a target of making twocrore rural women lakhpati didis; the target has been raised to 3 crore rural women. The list is long. It even notes that India has over 80 chess grandmasters, compared to little over 20 in 2010 – the Modi government and its economic policies have apparently brought rewards many planners, economists, strategists didn’t think of! </p>.<p>Yet, the claims raise many questions that do not have easy answers. Why is it that in such a happening economy, 81 crore Indians have to be given free food grains for another five years? To quote the budget speech, “the worries about food have been eliminated through free ration” for over 60 per cent of the population. If Mudra loans are working for 43 crore entrepreneurs and their families, why is it that the NREGS rural work guarantee programme had to be extended by another five years? Why, indeed, has the demand for work and wages under NREGS shot up? Former RBI Governor D Subba Rao recently pointed out that the unemployment rate is 8-10 per cent, and that youth unemployment is as high as 40 per cent. So, if the gift wrapping around the budget is removed, we can see a more realistic picture of the work that is required to push growth, reduce inequality, create decent job opportunities for the youth, and build a future that is truly empowering, sustainable and inclusive. </p>
<p>The Union interim budget presented on Thursday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is a vote-on-account, and in that sense is a limited exercise that signals a lot but can commit very little.</p><p> It uses a golden frame to showcase the path that has been tread and presents the hope of “unprecedented development” and “golden moments” in the next five years. </p><p>Pre-election budgets tend to go that way, and to that extent this one is no different. It is interested more in building the air of achievement, except that the “profound positive transformation” it seeks to present has already been hawked by the government from various other quarters. </p><p>This is therefore one more occasion to turn up the amp. It is redeemed by the fact that it exudes fiscal restraint, not overt populism. In terms of core numbers, the fiscal deficit estimate for 2024-25 has a sharp reduction, down to 5.1 per cent, which is positive as a trendline. </p><p>The focus on reprioritising of expenditure in recent budgets by enhancing provision of capital expenditure is a welcome move. However, there is a question of budget integrity when the 2023-24 budget estimates of capital expenditure are reduced (down by Rs 50,715 crore) in the revised estimate. </p>.<p>The government says it has done a lot. The PM Mudra Yojana has sanctioned 43 crore loans aggregating to Rs 22.5 lakh crore for entrepreneurial aspirations of the youth; 30 crore of these Mudra loans have been given to women entrepreneurs; government had set a target of making twocrore rural women lakhpati didis; the target has been raised to 3 crore rural women. The list is long. It even notes that India has over 80 chess grandmasters, compared to little over 20 in 2010 – the Modi government and its economic policies have apparently brought rewards many planners, economists, strategists didn’t think of! </p>.<p>Yet, the claims raise many questions that do not have easy answers. Why is it that in such a happening economy, 81 crore Indians have to be given free food grains for another five years? To quote the budget speech, “the worries about food have been eliminated through free ration” for over 60 per cent of the population. If Mudra loans are working for 43 crore entrepreneurs and their families, why is it that the NREGS rural work guarantee programme had to be extended by another five years? Why, indeed, has the demand for work and wages under NREGS shot up? Former RBI Governor D Subba Rao recently pointed out that the unemployment rate is 8-10 per cent, and that youth unemployment is as high as 40 per cent. So, if the gift wrapping around the budget is removed, we can see a more realistic picture of the work that is required to push growth, reduce inequality, create decent job opportunities for the youth, and build a future that is truly empowering, sustainable and inclusive. </p>
