Act resolutely on ties with Central Asia

Building on earlier meetings with Central Asian national security advisers and foreign ministers, India on Thursday hosted the first-ever virtual summit with the Presidents of the five countries in the region. Such an initiative was long overdue. Central Asia is rich in resources, including oil and natural gas, and offers India markets. Importantly, cooperation with this region is key to our national security and strategic ambitions. The Central Asian Republics border Iran, Afghanistan and China. For any Indian initiative in Afghanistan to be successful, Delhi needs to have the Central Asian countries on board. The just-concluded virtual summit is therefore a welcome stepping up of India’s attention to them. Recognising their shared perceptions of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the threat that State-backed terrorists pose to their security, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan decided to set up two Joint Working Groups on Afghanistan and the Chabahar port project. The JWG on Afghanistan will help India coordinate its strategies and step up humanitarian and other aid to Kabul, evolve a consensus on dealing with the Taliban as well as cooperate in tackling security concerns. The JWG on Chabahar is meant to boost Indian trade with Central Asia, even as it strengthens ties with Iran and Afghanistan.

India’s outreach to landlocked Central Asia was hamstrung for decades by Pakistan’s refusal to allow it overland access to Afghanistan and onward to the Central Asian countries. Still, this is no justification for what until now have been weak ties with the region. It is Delhi’s confused ties with Iran that has undermined its Central Asia policy. Without strengthening cooperation with Iran, India’s aspirations of building bonds with Central Asia will remain a non-starter.

India’s outreach to Central Asia will face competition from China. Beijing’s trade with the region is worth tens of billions of dollars, compared to India’s measly few billions. China does not encounter the kind of geographical or financial obstacles that India faces in dealing with the region. However, resentment against China’s overbearing influence is growing. The region is looking to reduce dependence on Beijing. This provides India an opportunity. Hitherto, Delhi has not persisted in transforming its stated interest in Central Asia into co-operation on the ground. It has resulted in India not having enough options in crafting its strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan, especially in the wake of the fall of the Ashraf Ghani government. It is time for Delhi to act more resolutely to build strong equities in this region.