Start preparing for an ageing India

The ‘India Ageing Report 2023’, released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), has confirmed apprehensions about the fast-paced greying of India and its implications for the country. The report says the number of senior citizens (above 60 years) will double to 20.8% of the population by 2050 from 10.5% in 2022. This will be about 350 million people, compared to 150 million now. The projection is in line the government’s ‘Youth in India 2022’ report, which saw the elderly population rising to 14.9% in 2036 and rising further thence. The increasing share of elderly population will mean a relative shrinking of the working population. India’s demographic dividend phase began in 2010 when the working age population (20 to 59 years) accounted for 51% of the population. This has risen steadily. But now, it may be offset by the rising numbers of senior citizens in the coming decades. 

The change in the composition of the population will have implications for the economy, society and many important aspects like healthcare, social security, and welfare. The immediate challenge is to make use of the population dividend now to strengthen the present and near-future so as to prepare for the needs of the later years. Education, health, and employment are three key areas which need most attention. Poor performance and missed opportunities in these areas will make the challenges all the more difficult later. If the country becomes old before it is in a position to support both its young and the old, it can lead to serious economic difficulties and social disruptions. China’s present economic decline is partly attributed to the changes in its population due to its one-child policy, though it had made use of its demographic dividend in the past decades.

The report calls for formulation of government policies that will cater to the welfare of the elderly population. They need enhanced and wider healthcare facilities and social security, including pension, to live with dignity. The report has found that over 40% of the elderly fall in the poorest wealth quintile. The country should make more investments in terms of money, infrastructure, and human resources in geriatric care. Geriatrics as a branch of medical care has not received much attention in the country. The need for institutional and community support for the elderly population becomes especially important because of the emergence of nuclear families and the weakening of the traditional support systems. The report has said that the oldest segment of the population will have a “predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women” because of the higher life expectancy of women. This will pose a special challenge.