Opportunism vs hegemonism

From the beginning when Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar formed a new coalition government with the BJP as his partner, it was clear that the arrangement was not viable. It was like the tail wagging the dog because the JD(U) had only 45 MLAs against the BJP’s 77 after the 2020 Assembly election. The BJP had agreed to let Nitish lead because it had no other option. It had tried to weaken the JD(U) by using Chirag Paswan to cut into the regional party’s votes. Nitish, too, did not have options in the immediate circumstances in the wake of the election. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by his son Tejashwi Yadav, had emerged as the biggest party. After parting ranks with the RJD not long before, Nitish could not have allied with that party, and even if he did, he could not be the Chief Minister. So, another Nitish-led NDA government came into being, but the script for its break-up, which happened on Tuesday, was also written then.

It could be a contest between the BJP’s hegemonism and Nitish Kumar’s opportunism, but for the time being, Nitish has trumped his old partner. It would not have escaped his attention that all regional parties that entered into alliances with the BJP have been left weakened and emaciated, like his own party. The BJP grew at their expense and ate into their bases. The splitting of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra provided the latest demonstration of the BJP’s aggression, and Nitish had reason to believe that similar tactics would be followed in Bihar, too. BJP president J P Nadda's statement in Patna last week that all regional parties would be eliminated and only the BJP would remain in the country served as the last warning.

The terms of partnership between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav are not known. Nitish has been sworn in Chief Minister, and Tejashwi will be Deputy Chief Minister. Nitish will again be at the mercy of the larger partner whose ‘mahagatbandhan’ was not far short of the majority mark in the last election. Two social justice parties who were in competition in the same brand of politics are again in cohabitation now. Both are aware that they have a common enemy. Nitish has long years of experience but his reputation for good governance has frayed. The impact of the Bihar developments on national politics cannot be predicted now. But they may give more confidence to the Opposition and provide fresh momentum to the efforts for a united plank against the BJP in the 2024 elections. The loss of a major state like Bihar would rankle for the BJP, and it will certainly go back to the drawing board.