Uddhav Thackeray's government is mortally wounded

It may be early yet to declare the end of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government headed by Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray, but it has been mortally wounded by the revolt staged by the party’s popular leader Eknath Shinde. The rebels, who are now ensconced in Guwahati, have claimed that they have the majority of the Sena MLAs with them. This is likely, too, and the fall of the government seems to be only a matter of time. Thackeray may have even recognised and accepted this when he made a conciliatory reach-out to the rebels and shifted from his official quarters to his personal residence. He said that his resignation is ready as he made a personal and emotional appeal to the rebels. But it is doubtful if an emotional appeal will have any impact in the present situation, which is overwhelmingly political and in which a large number of players are involved. Most importantly, the country’s strongest political force, the BJP, is most certainly involved in it, behind the scenes and even upfront.

One major grouse of the rebels is that the MVA is not a natural alliance and so the Shiv Sena should go back to its old alliance with the BJP. Unnatural alliances are not uncommon in the country and many of the alliances that even the BJP has formed belong to the category. What has mattered most to parties is not similar ideological wavelengths but the political exigencies of particular situations. If the Shiv Sena decided to ally with the NCP and the Congress, it had its compulsions, and the failure of the Sena leadership may lie in its ability to convey this effectively to its legislators and ranks. It is also possible that a section of the party was not ready to be convinced but only went along with the leadership’s decision. The origin of the present trouble may lie in that. There are also complaints and grievances from party legislators about Thackeray’s inaccessibility and his style of functioning. He may have earned a name as a good administrator but that has not helped.

The leadership of both the MVA government and the party failed to read the signals of dissent early enough in time. The setback the Shiv Sena received in the Rajya Sabha and Council elections were trailers of the crash to come. The leadership also seems to have forgotten that the BJP would have been working behind the scenes constantly for this situation ever since it was humiliated out of office in a state where it thinks it has the first right to govern. Shinde’s rebellion did not come in a single day and in isolation.