<p>The dastardly killing of Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on November 27 in a terror attack once again highlights the fraught and volatile nature of politics in the Middle East. The timing of the attack, reportedly carried out at the behest of Israel, was carefully chosen to pre-empt any immediate retaliatory action by Iran. The attack was prompted by Israel’s calculation that Iran was getting too close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability, which could threaten its security, and is believed to have had the tacit approval of Washington and Riyadh.</p>.<p>The traditional rivalry between Saudi Arabia (leader of Sunni Muslims) and Iran (leader of Shias) escalated further in September 2019 when Iran reportedly attacked two Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. The placid reaction of President Trump made it clear to the Saudis that they needed additional external support for their security.</p>.<p>Even earlier, the Trump administration’s policy of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran had failed to change its behaviour as Iran had responded with “maximum resistance” by strengthening its network of proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon to attack its opponents and slashing the ‘breakout time” (window required to advance its nuclear programme to weapons production) from about a year earlier to 3 months. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Assad government in Syria had registered notable successes.</p>.<p>Given that the US is now determined to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East, Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), decided to lean more and more on Israel to seek assistance in counter-terrorism, training of its security personnel and advanced technologies. Israel not only shares Saudi’s implacable hostility towards Iran but also has repeatedly shown determination to act against it. The US has also encouraged the growing ties between the Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, and Israel as it helps in retaining the key Arab countries in its sphere of influence against the advances being made by China and Russia to expand their political, economic and military influence in the region.</p>.<p>Unlike his father, MBS attaches low priority to the return of disputed lands from Israel to Palestine and backs the solution proposed by President Trump. The Palestinian issue is getting sidelined due to divisions in the Palestinian leadership, failure to come up with more pragmatic solutions, embracing the new political realities and considerable rise in Israel’s influence in the region. Today, many Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others attach primacy to curbing Iran’s growing influence rather than resolving the Palestinian conflict.</p>.<p>The compromise of Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Arab states on the Palestinian issue and their thriving relationship with Israel has deepened the hostility of Iran, Turkey and Malaysia with them and accentuated divisions in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia’s increased reliance on Israel for security has undercut the importance of Pakistan for it.</p>.<p>China has an ambitious vision for investments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and other countries in the region but has been cool towards playing a political or security role in defence of the either party, i.e. Iran or Saud Arabia, or provide protection to the ships transporting oil from the region.</p>.<p>The slowdown in the economic growth of China, India and many other countries post Covid-19 has plummeted the demand for oil while supply has increased due to availability of exportable surplus from the US, Russia, Libya leading to decline in the price of crude oil.</p>.<p>More ambitious rulers like MBS have realised that they cannot continue to depend upon uncertain and falling oil revenues. They have to tap other non-oil based sources of revenue such as manufacturing, range of services like health, tourism, education and domestic consumption. MBS has promised to undertake socio-economic reforms gradually, giving more freedoms and participation to women and others.</p>.<p>Despite their mutual contestations, India has been able to upgrade its strong ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE and other countries. India has abiding political, trade and other interests with the presence of a large diaspora. Availability of oil supply from these countries plays an important role in India’s energy security. Israel has become a significant player in counterterrorism, security and other cooperation with India. It is hoped that Biden administration’s opening to Iran will provide new opportunities to India to augment its relations with the country.</p>.<p>US President-elect Biden is unlikely to reverse major policies of his predecessor except exploring if a nuclear deal (signed during Obama administration) could be revived with pushback of Iran’s destabilising behaviour in the region. Any solution to the mutual rivalries among the main protagonists, as described above, does not appear in sight. The Middle East will remain a hotbed of raging contestations for political and economic influence with uneasy and elusive peace prevailing in the near future.</p>.<p><br /><em>(Yogesh Gupta is a former Ambassador. Contact him at ambassadorgupta@gmail.com)</em></p>.<p><em>The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>The dastardly killing of Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on November 27 in a terror attack once again highlights the fraught and volatile nature of politics in the Middle East. The timing of the attack, reportedly carried out at the behest of Israel, was carefully chosen to pre-empt any immediate retaliatory action by Iran. The attack was prompted by Israel’s calculation that Iran was getting too close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability, which could threaten its security, and is believed to have had the tacit approval of Washington and Riyadh.</p>.<p>The traditional rivalry between Saudi Arabia (leader of Sunni Muslims) and Iran (leader of Shias) escalated further in September 2019 when Iran reportedly attacked two Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. The placid reaction of President Trump made it clear to the Saudis that they needed additional external support for their security.</p>.<p>Even earlier, the Trump administration’s policy of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran had failed to change its behaviour as Iran had responded with “maximum resistance” by strengthening its network of proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon to attack its opponents and slashing the ‘breakout time” (window required to advance its nuclear programme to weapons production) from about a year earlier to 3 months. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Assad government in Syria had registered notable successes.</p>.<p>Given that the US is now determined to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East, Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), decided to lean more and more on Israel to seek assistance in counter-terrorism, training of its security personnel and advanced technologies. Israel not only shares Saudi’s implacable hostility towards Iran but also has repeatedly shown determination to act against it. The US has also encouraged the growing ties between the Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, and Israel as it helps in retaining the key Arab countries in its sphere of influence against the advances being made by China and Russia to expand their political, economic and military influence in the region.</p>.<p>Unlike his father, MBS attaches low priority to the return of disputed lands from Israel to Palestine and backs the solution proposed by President Trump. The Palestinian issue is getting sidelined due to divisions in the Palestinian leadership, failure to come up with more pragmatic solutions, embracing the new political realities and considerable rise in Israel’s influence in the region. Today, many Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others attach primacy to curbing Iran’s growing influence rather than resolving the Palestinian conflict.</p>.<p>The compromise of Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Arab states on the Palestinian issue and their thriving relationship with Israel has deepened the hostility of Iran, Turkey and Malaysia with them and accentuated divisions in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia’s increased reliance on Israel for security has undercut the importance of Pakistan for it.</p>.<p>China has an ambitious vision for investments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and other countries in the region but has been cool towards playing a political or security role in defence of the either party, i.e. Iran or Saud Arabia, or provide protection to the ships transporting oil from the region.</p>.<p>The slowdown in the economic growth of China, India and many other countries post Covid-19 has plummeted the demand for oil while supply has increased due to availability of exportable surplus from the US, Russia, Libya leading to decline in the price of crude oil.</p>.<p>More ambitious rulers like MBS have realised that they cannot continue to depend upon uncertain and falling oil revenues. They have to tap other non-oil based sources of revenue such as manufacturing, range of services like health, tourism, education and domestic consumption. MBS has promised to undertake socio-economic reforms gradually, giving more freedoms and participation to women and others.</p>.<p>Despite their mutual contestations, India has been able to upgrade its strong ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE and other countries. India has abiding political, trade and other interests with the presence of a large diaspora. Availability of oil supply from these countries plays an important role in India’s energy security. Israel has become a significant player in counterterrorism, security and other cooperation with India. It is hoped that Biden administration’s opening to Iran will provide new opportunities to India to augment its relations with the country.</p>.<p>US President-elect Biden is unlikely to reverse major policies of his predecessor except exploring if a nuclear deal (signed during Obama administration) could be revived with pushback of Iran’s destabilising behaviour in the region. Any solution to the mutual rivalries among the main protagonists, as described above, does not appear in sight. The Middle East will remain a hotbed of raging contestations for political and economic influence with uneasy and elusive peace prevailing in the near future.</p>.<p><br /><em>(Yogesh Gupta is a former Ambassador. Contact him at ambassadorgupta@gmail.com)</em></p>.<p><em>The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>