Afghanistan: The way forward for India

India's close ties with the IRA had put India at odds with the Taliban

The internationally-recognised Afghan government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA), led by President Ashraf Ghani, collapsed with the capitulation of the Afghan armed forces against a marauding Taliban militia. The armed forces and a government built over 20 years withered away ahead of the scheduled withdrawal of the US-led forces. The US military presence in Afghanistan, and its mission to democratise that country, have come to a chaotic and humiliating end.

India had developed close ties with the IRA during the period of reconstruction. India provided strong support to the Afghan armed forces with training and weaponry. The close ties with the IRA had put India at odds with the Taliban. When the Biden administration reiterated earlier this year that the US resolved to completely withdraw from Afghanistan, the policy options before India narrowed.

The Taliban, which refers to its regime as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), is an Islamist religious-political movement and militant organisation. The Taliban are regarded by many governments around the world, including India, and by the United Nations as terrorists. It is one of two entities claiming to be the legitimate government of Afghanistan, alongside the internationally-recognised IRA.

The US-led alliance invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 9/11 terror attacks in the US and to deny safe haven to terrorism in Afghanistan for all time to come. The US was able to displace the Taliban from power by early 2002 and brought forth a democratic process while the country remained plagued by an insurgency led by the Taliban. After pouring billions of dollars and holding multiple elections since 2001, Afghanistan is back to square one, with the potential of becoming a hotbed for global terror once again.

India had backed the Northern Alliance that had politically and militarily opposed the Taliban regime from 1996-2001. After the overthrow of the Taliban regime, India invested approximately $3 billion in developmental assistance in Afghanistan -- with the Afghan parliament building and the Afghan-India Friendship Dam being the showpieces. India has been home to a significant Afghan student population, many under government sponsorship.

As we wait for the Taliban-led government to be formally announced, India should look to engage with them constructively, despite the issues of international recognition. Several countries have been unequivocal in their stance of not recognising a Taliban-dominated government in Kabul.

India, with due circumspection, should consider official recognition of a Taliban-dominated government in a gradual manner. India would be better off engaging with the Taliban regime instead of an obstinate opposition to the proscribed terror group. The novel approach of promoting a democratic process does not always help in securing India’s interests. After all, India has been engaging constructively with countries such as Myanmar and Iran. Moreover, with the Taliban in power, Pakistan is likely to strategically dominate the region and can potentially use Afghanistan as a base against India -- as it has done in the past. Thus, it is in India’s interest to ensure that it has a working relationship with the Taliban regime and also retains its soft power to counter Pakistan’s influence in the region.

India has to balance its commitment to a multi-ethnic Afghanistan with the realpolitik of engaging the Taliban regime. The Taliban derives its support from ethnic Pashtuns and has been hostile to other ethnic and religious groups such as Shia Hazaras, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hindus and Sikhs, amongst others.

Given the Taliban’s extremist past, the Indian government will have to tread carefully while negotiating with the Taliban. The ties between the Taliban and terrorist organisations in South Asia have haunted India, as in December 1999 when an Indian commercial aircraft was hijacked and flown to Kandahar, Afghanistan.

Peace in the Kashmir Valley remains a top priority for the Indian government. Pakistan and its religious proxies in Afghanistan have strongly backed the Taliban movement since its inception in the early 1990s in the tribal areas of the Af-Pak border region. India’s outreach to the Taliban will have to carefully offset any anti-India behaviour that Pakistan might force on the Taliban.

Further, China and Russia have displayed a keen inclination to officially court the Taliban after its capture of most of Afghanistan at breakneck speed. Russia and China are looking to secure their interests in Afghanistan, in addition to filling the vacuum created by the exit of US-led security forces.

India, like Western democracies, has a tendency to push the democratic value system at the cost of its strategic interests. But now, it is in India’s interest to look beyond the nation-building and democracy-promotion paradigms and strive to re-establish a working relationship with the Taliban regime.

(The writers are foreign policy researchers with experience spanning academia, government, think-tanks, and the corporate sector)