JOIN USCouncil poll results, an alarm bell for BJP
The results of the elections to 25 seats of the Karnataka Legislative Council from 20 local authorities’ constituencies were announced on December 14. The BJP and the Congress had contested from 20 constituencies each and the Janata Dal(S) in 6. Both the BJP and the Congress have won 11 seats each. The JD(S) has managed victory in only two constituencies and one seat was captured by independent candidate Lakhan Jarkiholi. An analysis of the results from the perspective of the contending parties and their prospects for 2023 is in order.
First, let us take the case of the ruling BJP. The chief minister had claimed that the party would win 14-15 seats and thereby secure a comfortable majority in the Council consisting of 75 members. However, the results have shown that the party has fallen short by one seat to reach the majority mark. Though the chief minister has publicly defended the party’s performance in the polls, pointing to the six additional seats won by it, he seems to be a worried man, going by the defeat in the prestigious Belagavi constituency.
The debacle has exposed the party’s weakness in the constituency despite its member Ramesh Jarkiholi having a strong base there. It is an open secret that Ramesh Jarkiholi indirectly supported his younger brother Lakhan Jarkiholi, dissatisfied with the manner in which his resignation was extracted following his alleged involvement in a sex tape scandal a few months ago. The defeat of the party candidate and chief whip of the party Mahantesh Kavatagimath has embarrassed the party to a great extent. The electoral verdict has led to some members demanding action against Ramesh Jarkiholi, holding the Jarkiholi brothers (Balachandra and Ramesh) responsible for the defeat of the party candidate. But it is unlikely that the party leadership will initiate any action against him. It hopes that Ramesh Jarkiholi would persuade his younger brother Lakhan Jarkiholi to support the government in the Council when it comes to getting bills passed.
Belagavi’s defeat notwithstanding, the party candidates have won with smaller margins in many other constituencies. The margin of victory in Kalaburgi was 149, in Uttara Kannada 183, in Chitradurga 358 and in Shivamogga 344. In Bengaluru, the margin of victory for the BJP was 397 votes against the millionaire Congress candidate Yusuf Sheriff. In Kodagu, where the party has a strong base, the victory margin was 102. The lowest was in Chikkamagaluru, where the party candidate managed to win with the lowest margin of just six votes. All in all, the poll results have come as a warning bell to the ruling BJP. It looks like Basavaraj Bommai is yet to establish himself as a strong pan-Karnataka leader and astute election strategist.
As regards the Congress party, its candidates too won in 11 constituencies, though the party’s tally came down from 29 to 26. Former CM Siddaramaiah has declared that the voters are yearning for a change of government in 2023. The Congress’ performance was the result of a united campaign headed by party president D K Shivakumar and the leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Siddaramaiah. The selection of candidates, too, was done without any internal bickering.
Eight of its 11 successful candidates are fresh faces. The party candidates won in Mandya, Kolar and Tumakuru, besides retaining Mysuru and Bengaluru Rural. KPCC working president Saleem Ahmed won by a big margin from the Dharwad dual constituency, giving the party a shot in the arm against the BJP.
As for the JD(S), the tally came down from 13 to 11, as its candidates won only in two constituencies. Party patriarch Deve Gowda’s grandson Suraj Revanna registered a comfortable victory in Hassan. With the victory of Suraj Revanna, the family has four members in the state legislature, lending credence to the perception that the JD(S) is a family party. With the loss of its seats in Mandya, Kolar and Tumakuru, the party’s dominance in the Vokkaliga belt has declined. The much-speculated electoral alliance with the ruling BJP did not materialise. The party’s allegation that there was a secret understanding between the BJP and the Congress lacks credibility.
With many senior leaders deserting the party in recent times and with no influence in northern Karnataka and coastal regions of the state, the party’s existential crisis seems to have deepened. The party is perceived to be led by electoral opportunism most of the time. The 2023 Assembly elections will witness a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress, with the JD(S) becoming a marginal player. It may, however, come to the fore if the verdict turns out to be in favour of a hung Assembly!
(The writer is former Professor of Political Science, Bangalore University, and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)