India-China: Time to negotiate a truce?

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met in Bali on July 7, on the sidelines of a meeting of G20 foreign ministers, and discussed the standoff in eastern Ladakh. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier, Chinese Defence Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe said “We have had 15 rounds of talks at commander level with the Indians and we are working together for peace in this area” adding that both countries are working towards establishing peace along the Line of Actual Control.

As India and China are now in the process of finalising the date for the 16th round of corps commander-level talks, there is a significant change in language and behaviour of the Chinese political leadership since May 2020, when China sensed a non-existent opportunity to usurp slices of Indian territory. Over one lakh troops from the world’s two largest militaries stand facing each other in battle-readiness now. Diplomatic and military parleys have kept volatility under check and also led to a limited withdrawal of troops from vital friction points. But a small misadventure along the 3,500-km Indo-China border could put one-third of humanity, living on either side of the border, at inconceivable risk.

Gen. Wei’s softening of stance isn’t surprising as China today stands more isolated than before for a number of reasons -- siding with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, accused of originating the Covid-19 virus, unease with its neighbours in the South China Sea, contributing to Sri Lanka’s woes, and wild suspicion of its hand in the assassination of Shinzo Abe. China is also struggling to overcome hurdles in implementing its BRI projects, and domestically, rising inflation and public angst against its iron-fisted approach to Covid-19. Perhaps this is the opportune time for India to negotiate hard during the upcoming round of talks, considering recent geopolitical developments in India’s favour.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was invited to attend the G7 meet held in Germany on June 26, raising many eyebrows. Earlier, leaders of the Quad countries met in May 2022 and issued a joint statement emphasising the importance of the rule of law, sovereignty, and “territorial integrity”. They also unveiled the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to counter China’s presence in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which India opted out of. India recently inked a $375-million deal with the Philippines to export three batteries of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. In June, India and Vietnam signed a deal to enhance the “scope and scale” of defence ties and inked a logistics support pact, allowing both militaries to use each other’s bases for repair and replenishment of supplies.

Prior to these developments, the 15th round of the Corps Commander-level meet was held on March 11 in the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On completion of the talks, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Chinese defence ministry, stated that “China and India have agreed to handle the border issue through negotiation and consultation but are firmly opposed to interference from a third party”, possibly alluding to new-found intimacy in the Indo-US relationship as well as acknowledging India’s ability to take an independent stand, based on its own interests.

While China continues to invest heavily in developing villages along the frontier in Tibet to assert its claims along the LAC, on the Indian side, the road connectivity to the LAC continues to be a cause of concern, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh, which can impose limitations, should there be a need to scale up military operations?

Sensing the urgency, the government has increased the capital outlay for the Border Roads Organisation by 40%, besides a six-fold increase in allocation for Arunachal Pradesh’s Border Area Development Programme. All border development schemes are being converged under the “Vibrant Villages Programme” announced in the Union budget, paving way for integrated execution and better monitoring.

The Centre is also planning to set up a Border Infrastructure Management Authority (BIMA) for the comprehensive development of roads, rail, water, power and communications networks. These demonstrate India’s seriousness in securing its territory, giving a fillip to border negotiations.

As the world faces the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the futility of continuing with the stalemate on its western border should dawn on China. India’s rapid infrastructure development along the LAC, expanding military and trade ties with friendly nations of the Indo-Pacific region, and its growing stature in the comity of nations can no longer be ignored by the Chinese political leadership.

The time is ripe for India to push hard and negotiate a mutually assured withdrawal plan for the restoration of pre-2020 positions during the upcoming round of talks. For durable peace in the region, sustained dialogue toward clear demarcation of the ill-defined 3,500-km border must continue.