The origin theories around Covid

The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently denied that it had “shelved” the investigation into the origins of Covid-19, and stressed the “moral importance” of knowing the “truth”. There is no dispute that the pandemic that unleashed unprecedented havoc on mankind originated in China. The concept of the ‘Middle Kingdom’ applies more aptly in this context. However, what requires a thorough enquiry and an objective answer is whether it was a bioweapon.

Those who advocate the bioweapon theory opine that Covid-19 was a kind of “rehearsal” by China to take on the West. Some go to the extent of saying that “this version of corona was genetically modified to target certain categories of population”. They cite numerous infections and casualties in Europe and the US despite the availability of the best medical facilities.

Studies by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in this regard are being pointed out. For instance, ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ (1999) by Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui talks about “the significance of alternatives to direct military confrontation, including international policy, economic warfare, attacks on digital infrastructure and networks, and terrorism”. National Defence University’s ‘Science of Military Strategy’ (2017) discusses new types of biological warfare.

According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an international body that works to prevent catastrophic attacks with weapons of mass destruction and disruption — nuclear, biological, radiological, chemical and cyber, “China possesses the required technology and resources to mass-produce traditional biological weapon agents as well as expertise in aerobiology.”

The BSL-4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology is part of China’s research efforts to study manmade and natural epidemics. The US State Department, in its 2021 annual report, highlighted the issue of China engaging in “biological activities with potential dual-use applications”. The US also raised concerns about “transfers of dual-use items from Chinese entities to Iranian government entities”.

However, the fact that bio-warfare figures in Chinese military literature, or the possession of bioweapon capability or dual-use technologies may not directly translate to China developing bioweapons in some form or the other. China has always maintained that, as a victim of bio-agents employed by Japan during World War II, it is against any development and deployment of bioweapons for military purposes. Beijing is a signatory to the Geneva Protocol and Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention, and has displayed its commitment to comply with the convention by putting in place requisite domestic legal and institutional structures. Yet, China’s activities in nuclear, missile, and weapons proliferation and its overall power projection have raised doubts about its intentions, including on bioweapons.

But there is no evidence to suggest that Covid-19 is a bioweapons rehearsal from China. Some Chinese go to the extent of reversing the allegation that it was in fact the US Army that smuggled coronavirus inside Wuhan and made it the epicentre, which, once again, is without any basis.

Epidemiologists strongly argue that Covid-19 was not a human-manipulated strain, and hence, cannot be a “genetic weapon.” At this juncture of building itself as a world power, China would not even imagine getting into such an act that would spell doom on its image. Beijing is smart enough to know that its economic growth cannot be at the cost of the fall of the entire world.

Unlike SARS and MERS, Covid-19 did not enjoy high lab safety, which was a mistake. Hence, a possibility of a lab leak cannot be ruled out. Hunan Seafood Market, believed to be the ground zero of the outbreak, is only 300 metres away from the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. There are unverified reports that suggest that some scientists make a fast buck by selling lab specimens in the market.

In any case, China is not new to lab leaks: the SARS leak in 2004 from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention; and the brucellosis outbreak from an accident at Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute in 2019 are a few examples. After the present pandemic, the fact that the Chinese leadership has been emphasising increasing lab safety gives credence to this theory.

Finding the truth about the origins and spread of pandemics is important. If it was due to a lab leak, then lab safety needs to be improved not just in China but worldwide. If the origin and spread was a bioweapon deployed by China, then Beijing is liable. China deserves severe sanctions if the spread was meant for economic and political gains. If the spread was due to sheer lethargy by the Chinese administration, it owes an apology to the entire world. The truth lies in one of these four. However, all these point at one thing: Our understanding of China requires serious attention and action.

(The writer is Director, Centre for East Asian Studies, Christ University, Bengaluru. He earlier served at the National Security Council Secretariat, PMO)