<p>The perception becomes unavoidable that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s overture to his Taliban counterpart Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/muttaqi-rejected-paks-allegations-that-indian-missiles-hit-afghanistan-sources-3544464">to ‘upgrade’ the relations</a> is a knee-jerk reaction to the downhill slide of <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/tags/india-pakistan-relations">India-Pakistan ties</a> to war conditions. At least, that’s how the Indian media has been led to report. Whereas, the upgrade of India-Afghan political and diplomatic relations is indeed overdue intrinsically.</p><p>The Taliban has shown that it has control over the territory of Afghanistan, and the state formation has steadily advanced. Two key pre-requisites for the recognition of the administration in Kabul as an established government have been fulfilled since the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/dh-deciphers-what-the-taliban-s-takeover-of-afghanistan-means-for-india-1023959.html">takeover in August 2021</a>.</p><p>The inclusiveness of a government, its human rights policies, its attitude to gender issues, etc — these are, strictly speaking, domestic issues. Nonetheless, if gold standards were applied to the Taliban government by the Joe Biden administration, that was more of a petulant act to ostracise it until the United States could reconcile with the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan. Revenge, after all, is a dish best served cold. </p><p>That said, the world of today is unrecognisable. A terrible beauty was born in February 2022. The ‘rules-based order’, imposed by the US, broke down. And the Donald Trump administration does not subscribe to the neocon ideology or exceptionalism. On the other hand, giving the Taliban administration a habitation and name in the world community has become a matter of expediency for Afghanistan’s neighbours, especially Russia, China, and Iran. </p><p>For these countries, it is a matter of concern that Western intelligence agencies are trying to restart their bases in Afghanistan, although the so-called Afghan Resistance, which they supported, has unravelled. Conversely, the regional states increasingly regard the Taliban as a factor of stability. </p>.India-UK FTA | Government gives Aatmnirbharta a silent burial.<p>Meanwhile, in geopolitical terms, we cannot but connect the dots — the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/imran-khan-loses-no-confidence-motion-ousted-as-pakistan-pm-1099301.html">overthrow of Imran Khan in April 2022</a> leading up to the current-day <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/imf-imposes-11-new-conditions-on-pak-warns-it-against-risks-to-bailout-programme-report-3546009">$2.3 billion IMF bailout</a>; the regime change in Dhaka, and the ascendance of Islamist forces in Bangladesh as well as the new regime’s rapprochement with Islamabad; the renewed US interest in Pakistan with an eye on Afghanistan; the business trips of personalities in Trump’s circle to Pakistan, etc. Belatedly, New Delhi is responding to these undercurrents that impact the geopolitics of the region. </p><p>Given the drift in Russia-India ties and the chill in India’s relations with China, India’s elbow room to manoeuvre is limited. Iran is, arguably, India’s only ‘natural ally’; therefore, New Delhi is doing the right thing to dust up the languishing<strong> </strong>India-Iran ties.<strong> </strong>The scheduling of India-Iran joint commission meeting last week in New Delhi, co-chaired by the two foreign ministers, and the unusual call by national security adviser Ajit Doval to his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/nsa-doval-speaks-to-iranian-counterpart-3546519">to discuss Chabahar Port</a> and the upcoming International North-South Transport Corridor are timely. </p><p>New Delhi is heavily dependent on Iran’s co-operation to sustain an effective diplomacy towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. Israel should not be allowed to interfere with it. The friendly ties with Iran need to be reinforced. While Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany may be important countries for Jaishankar to <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/jaishankar-arrives-in-netherlands-on-first-leg-of-three-nation-tour-3547137">undertake a six-day regional tour</a>, a prioritisation of regional states such as Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan in Indian diplomacy is an imperative need, given the acute regional isolation India faces in South Asia.</p><p>Without such a compass, New Delhi’s engagement with the Taliban won’t fly. Look at China hosting yet another foreign-minister-level trilateral meeting with Pakistan and the Taliban this week. Amazing, isn’t it, that India’s Taliban diplomacy is still a toddler? The MEA should promote the participation of Indian companies in mining, infrastructure development, health and housing industry, etc., to get involved in Afghanistan. Russia has announced plans to revive Soviet-era projects. China, of course, is miles ahead of others.</p><p>However, the big question remains — the policy dimensions of New Delhi’s upgrade of ties with Kabul. Conceivably, the Indian establishment will borrow from the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian copybooks, and strive to strengthen the Taliban government as a factor of regional security and stability. Doval has given a powerful signal in this respect with his call to Tehran.</p><p>From the Afghan perspective, though, being a much weaker power than Pakistan, its counterstrategy to push back Pakistani hegemonism will pivot on Kabul’s capacity to dabble in the unresolved nationality question in Pakistan — Pashtun and Baluchi. But it is judicious to anticipate that the state of play in Pakistan-Taliban equations may not necessarily remain static or antagonistic. Both sides are probing a new normalcy in their relationship. Russia and China will encourage amity between Kabul and Islamabad. The main hurdle is Pakistani domestic politics, but all bets are off if Imran Khan is allowed to return to active politics. Put differently, New Delhi should be cautious and wise not to overlook the fluidity in the current situation. This is one thing. </p><p>Second, striking a balanced relationship with Afghan groups is easier said than done. US Ambassador Peter Tomsen, Ronald Reagan’s special envoy to Afghan Mujahideen <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/peter-tomsen/the-wars-of-afghanistan/9781610394123/?lens=publicaffairs#:~:text=Special%20Envoy%20on%20Afghanistan%20from%201989%20to%201992" rel="nofollow">from 1989 to 1992</a>, once used the metaphor of frogs in a glass jar struggling to climb out and pulling each other down as the quintessential Afghan paradigm. The Afghan groups are adept at playing foreign powers.</p><p>Third, most important, Afghans are a fiercely independent people, and their humility and expansive courtesies should not be taken for weakness. Never make a pledge that doesn’t have 100 per cent certainty. Equally, the Afghan’s sense of entitlement is well-defined, his will is stubborn, and his sense of honour is profound. The train crash of the 30-year-old Pakistan-Taliban alignment is largely to be attributed to the overbearing attitude of Pakistani mentors.</p><p><em>(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>The perception becomes unavoidable that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s overture to his Taliban counterpart Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/muttaqi-rejected-paks-allegations-that-indian-missiles-hit-afghanistan-sources-3544464">to ‘upgrade’ the relations</a> is a knee-jerk reaction to the downhill slide of <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/tags/india-pakistan-relations">India-Pakistan ties</a> to war conditions. At least, that’s how the Indian media has been led to report. Whereas, the upgrade of India-Afghan political and diplomatic relations is indeed overdue intrinsically.</p><p>The Taliban has shown that it has control over the territory of Afghanistan, and the state formation has steadily advanced. Two key pre-requisites for the recognition of the administration in Kabul as an established government have been fulfilled since the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/dh-deciphers-what-the-taliban-s-takeover-of-afghanistan-means-for-india-1023959.html">takeover in August 2021</a>.</p><p>The inclusiveness of a government, its human rights policies, its attitude to gender issues, etc — these are, strictly speaking, domestic issues. Nonetheless, if gold standards were applied to the Taliban government by the Joe Biden administration, that was more of a petulant act to ostracise it until the United States could reconcile with the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan. Revenge, after all, is a dish best served cold. </p><p>That said, the world of today is unrecognisable. A terrible beauty was born in February 2022. The ‘rules-based order’, imposed by the US, broke down. And the Donald Trump administration does not subscribe to the neocon ideology or exceptionalism. On the other hand, giving the Taliban administration a habitation and name in the world community has become a matter of expediency for Afghanistan’s neighbours, especially Russia, China, and Iran. </p><p>For these countries, it is a matter of concern that Western intelligence agencies are trying to restart their bases in Afghanistan, although the so-called Afghan Resistance, which they supported, has unravelled. Conversely, the regional states increasingly regard the Taliban as a factor of stability. </p>.India-UK FTA | Government gives Aatmnirbharta a silent burial.<p>Meanwhile, in geopolitical terms, we cannot but connect the dots — the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/imran-khan-loses-no-confidence-motion-ousted-as-pakistan-pm-1099301.html">overthrow of Imran Khan in April 2022</a> leading up to the current-day <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/world/imf-imposes-11-new-conditions-on-pak-warns-it-against-risks-to-bailout-programme-report-3546009">$2.3 billion IMF bailout</a>; the regime change in Dhaka, and the ascendance of Islamist forces in Bangladesh as well as the new regime’s rapprochement with Islamabad; the renewed US interest in Pakistan with an eye on Afghanistan; the business trips of personalities in Trump’s circle to Pakistan, etc. Belatedly, New Delhi is responding to these undercurrents that impact the geopolitics of the region. </p><p>Given the drift in Russia-India ties and the chill in India’s relations with China, India’s elbow room to manoeuvre is limited. Iran is, arguably, India’s only ‘natural ally’; therefore, New Delhi is doing the right thing to dust up the languishing<strong> </strong>India-Iran ties.<strong> </strong>The scheduling of India-Iran joint commission meeting last week in New Delhi, co-chaired by the two foreign ministers, and the unusual call by national security adviser Ajit Doval to his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/nsa-doval-speaks-to-iranian-counterpart-3546519">to discuss Chabahar Port</a> and the upcoming International North-South Transport Corridor are timely. </p><p>New Delhi is heavily dependent on Iran’s co-operation to sustain an effective diplomacy towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. Israel should not be allowed to interfere with it. The friendly ties with Iran need to be reinforced. While Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany may be important countries for Jaishankar to <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/jaishankar-arrives-in-netherlands-on-first-leg-of-three-nation-tour-3547137">undertake a six-day regional tour</a>, a prioritisation of regional states such as Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan in Indian diplomacy is an imperative need, given the acute regional isolation India faces in South Asia.</p><p>Without such a compass, New Delhi’s engagement with the Taliban won’t fly. Look at China hosting yet another foreign-minister-level trilateral meeting with Pakistan and the Taliban this week. Amazing, isn’t it, that India’s Taliban diplomacy is still a toddler? The MEA should promote the participation of Indian companies in mining, infrastructure development, health and housing industry, etc., to get involved in Afghanistan. Russia has announced plans to revive Soviet-era projects. China, of course, is miles ahead of others.</p><p>However, the big question remains — the policy dimensions of New Delhi’s upgrade of ties with Kabul. Conceivably, the Indian establishment will borrow from the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian copybooks, and strive to strengthen the Taliban government as a factor of regional security and stability. Doval has given a powerful signal in this respect with his call to Tehran.</p><p>From the Afghan perspective, though, being a much weaker power than Pakistan, its counterstrategy to push back Pakistani hegemonism will pivot on Kabul’s capacity to dabble in the unresolved nationality question in Pakistan — Pashtun and Baluchi. But it is judicious to anticipate that the state of play in Pakistan-Taliban equations may not necessarily remain static or antagonistic. Both sides are probing a new normalcy in their relationship. Russia and China will encourage amity between Kabul and Islamabad. The main hurdle is Pakistani domestic politics, but all bets are off if Imran Khan is allowed to return to active politics. Put differently, New Delhi should be cautious and wise not to overlook the fluidity in the current situation. This is one thing. </p><p>Second, striking a balanced relationship with Afghan groups is easier said than done. US Ambassador Peter Tomsen, Ronald Reagan’s special envoy to Afghan Mujahideen <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/peter-tomsen/the-wars-of-afghanistan/9781610394123/?lens=publicaffairs#:~:text=Special%20Envoy%20on%20Afghanistan%20from%201989%20to%201992" rel="nofollow">from 1989 to 1992</a>, once used the metaphor of frogs in a glass jar struggling to climb out and pulling each other down as the quintessential Afghan paradigm. The Afghan groups are adept at playing foreign powers.</p><p>Third, most important, Afghans are a fiercely independent people, and their humility and expansive courtesies should not be taken for weakness. Never make a pledge that doesn’t have 100 per cent certainty. Equally, the Afghan’s sense of entitlement is well-defined, his will is stubborn, and his sense of honour is profound. The train crash of the 30-year-old Pakistan-Taliban alignment is largely to be attributed to the overbearing attitude of Pakistani mentors.</p><p><em>(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>