Maldives: New President, old issues

In the recently concluded presidential run-off elections in the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, the candidate fielded by the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), secured about 54% of the popular votes, defeating the incumbent President Ibrahim Solih, who managed only 46%. Despite incidents of electoral violence, as reported by Transparency Maldives, the people of the Maldives deserve to be complimented for showcasing the spirit of democracy through a significant voter turnout and the peaceful change of government every five years. The fact that the present President Solih accepted the electoral outcome and congratulated Muizzu demonstrates the maturity of the leadership.

In his victory statement, President-elect Muizzu promised to “build a better future for our country and to ensure the sovereignty of our nation,” signalling potential implications both internally and externally.

Internally, the commitment to “build a better future” suggests continued emphasis on infrastructure development. Engineer by training, Muizzu was instrumental in implementing several infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, electricity grids, and airport expansion in the atoll state, mainly funded by China as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, allegations of corruption, debt traps, and non-transparency in Chinese funding led to the downfall of the Yameen government in 2018 and Yameen serving an 11-year jail sentence. With a Yameen-supported candidate at the helm, domestic politics is expected to witness a churn.

Muizzu has pledged to release the former president and his mentor, Abdullah Yameen. He considered Yameen’s release “the best action that can be taken in our nation’s interests.” Once released, Yameen may be accommodated by the government in some significant role as a qid pro quo. The 11-year imprisonment barred Yameen from contesting the presidential elections, because of which Muizzu got a chance. Muizzu served as Minister of Housing and Infrastructure in Yameen’s previous PPM government (2013–2018) and is currently the Mayor of the capital, Malé. Although elected as president, Muizzu may not have an easy ride due to a lack of majority in the legislature (Majlis), which is presently controlled by Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Yet another concern is the reinvigoration of Islamic radicalism in the Maldives, which has been low for the past few years. This is a concern for India as well.

Externally, Muizzu, perceived as “pro-China”, is expected to change the sails towards Beijing and away from New Delhi. Muizzu reportedly said that his victory would “script a further chapter of strong ties between China and the Maldives.” A free trade agreement between the Maldives and China would gain new vigour. The outgoing president, Solih, brought cordiality back to India-Maldives relations that had soured under Yameen. As against the previous Yameen government’s “India Out” campaign, Solih strongly advocated an “India First” policy that was dubbed by the opposition as “compromising the sovereignty of the Maldives”. Therefore, by stating “ensure the sovereignty of our nation”, Muizzu is hinting at scaling down, if not totally negating, the Indian presence in the Maldives. If sovereignty is played out for electoral gains by Maldivian political entrepreneurs, can they overlook India’s timely military assistance in 1988 that saved the Maldives? Is it not at the request of successive Maldivian governments that India agreed to be a ‘net security provider’ to the atoll state?

It should be noted that the foundations of India-Maldives relations have been strong. China is too far away, and Indian proximity is a big plus for the Maldives. Despite the nature of relations, India has always stood by the Maldives in times of crisis. Significantly, India reached out with the requisite aid and assistance during the 2004 tsunami, the 2014 water crisis, the 2020–21 pandemic, and further such trying situations. The atoll state figures prominently in New Delhi’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision. Notably, India’s ‘comprehensive strategy of development cooperation’ with the Maldives complements the ‘national framework for development’ of the Maldives. India’s development assistance has been transparent and focused on the needs and priorities of the people. The people of the Maldives know this. As opposed to what was played out by the media, the recent mandate was not about India or China but about the nature and dynamics of domestic politics and governance.

It is not good to typecast leaders in the neighbourhood as “pro” or “anti” India or China. It is too suggestive and simplistic to convert elections in the neighbouring countries into referenda for India or China. The Maldives president-elect Muizzu understands this and cannot ignore India despite pulls and pressures within and without. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis due to its overdependence on China ought not to be repeated in the Maldives. What counts, at the end of the day, is ‘realpolitik’ and economics too!

(The writer is Director, Centre for East Asian Studies, Christ (deemed to be)
University, Bengaluru)