Migrant labourers may impact Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee's fortunes

In poll-bound Bihar and in West Bengal, adequate employment generation for returnees could be key to how parties fare

At long last, the return of migrant workers to their home states is underway. It is indeed a big relief to them. But it is not the end of the story as far as they are concerned. In fact, it is just the beginning as far as their home states go. After they have returned to their homes, their states will have to work out plans for their livelihood.

There is a strong possibility that the ordeal that the migrant labourers have undergone for more than a month may deter them from returning to work in non-native states for a long time. It will be incumbent upon home states to find alternative work opportunities for them.

Poll-bound states face big test

It is both a challenge and an opportunity for states like West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand from where lakhs of workers went to different states of India. But it will be particularly challenging for the poll-bound states of Bihar (due in Oct-Nov 2020) and Bengal (due in April-May 2021). The reason is simple. If these two states can act swiftly to generate new employment avenues for the returnees, the respective ruling parties will be blessed by voters. If they fail, it will affect their prospects in the polls.

On a positive note, migrants from Bihar and Bengal can expect to be accommodated in their home states sooner, thanks to the coming elections. As far as the other states are concerned, Yogi Adityanath of Uttar Pradesh has promised to create 15 lakh new jobs for the migrants in the state in the near future. If he can walk the talk, other states will also be pressurised to act fast. Whether Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh can follow suit is to be seen. Naveen Patnaik of Odisha is known as a doer, and is expected to deliver.

Hopefully, there will be stiff competition among the states to serve their returnees better. In a democracy, political parties are forced to vie for scoring points by serving the people better in such critical times, if only to garner more votes in the next elections.

For the record, by the middle of next year three other states will also face elections along with Bengal. These states are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam. Kerala will face a similar problem of returnees, but it will be slightly different in nature as people will return there from foreign lands, and the returnees will not compare Kerala with the United Arab Emirates or other countries. Same is the case with Tamil Nadu. Assam, on the other hand, will have some returnees from different Indian states; but the number is not politically very significant.

Accommodating the migrants

The first challenge for the home states, however, is making smooth arrangements for getting people back. Yogi Adityanath, who got back the migrants and students from Rajasthan, has already put pressure on other states to do it fast and in a smooth manner. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, unable to follow UP’s lead, declared the idea of ferrying migrants or students 'an injustice to the principle of lockdown'. Even after the Centre's go-ahead for the return of the migrants, Kumar's deputy Sushil Modi, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) man, categorically stated that the Bihar government did not have enough buses to transport migrant labourers and students Possibly realising it was sounding insensitive, the next day Sushil Modi demanded Central government must bring these people back by train.

The wheels of trains have finally started rolling, the labourers are now returning, and by a quirk of fate, from May Day onwards. So, Nitish Kumar will be forced to think of new employment generation avenues as he will be facing the electorate within six months (of course if COVID-19 subsides by then). For him, however, time is short, and the burden is heavy. Bihar accounts for the second highest number of migrant labourers in India after Uttar Pradesh. Over the years the number has grown, thanks to the state’s inability to generate much scope for employment beyond the agricultural sector.

Mamata Banerjee will have more time, and she can at least work out an appropriate solution. She had herself earlier said that the people of Bengal need not go out as there was scope for work for them in the state. Now, she will have to showcase her efforts and success in this regard. It is particularly important for her political future, because the migrants are mainly from those districts -- including the Muslim-dominated Malda and Murshidabad, where Trinamool Congress stayed strong during the last Lok Sabha polls.

Mamata will also have the benefit of deflecting some blame on to the Centre. She has already blamed the Narendra Modi disposition for not disbursing enough food or money. The blame is not entirely unjustified either. But at the end of the day, people’s mood will depend on her performance, and not on her campaign. If Didi can provide employment to the returnees, she will be in an advantageous position. Otherwise, the BJP or the Congress-Left combine will benefit out of the crisis.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of books including, A Naxal Story. He is a deputy editor at the Bengali daily, Aajkal)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.