Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Kerala is seen as a strategic attempt to expand the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s presence in the state, which has been historically a hard carapace to crack for the national party.
The BJP considers Kerala as their final frontier in their juggernaut to win elections, thus making them the only party in India to have an MLA or MP from every state in India. In the 2016 assembly polls, it opened an account in the assembly for the first time by winning from the Nemom constituency. Detractors said the BJP won the seat not on its merit, but on the charisma of the candidate, O Rajagopal. Proving them right, in the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP lost its only seat in the assembly.
Modi’s two-day visit is part of the BJP’s larger electoral campaign. It constituted a roadshow, infrastructural project launch, meeting with church leaders, and addressing a youth conclave. During his roadshow in Kochi, Modi exuded confidence as he walked unafraid of the security threats he received, sending a strong message of his confidence in the people of the state. His visit is of political significance as the BJP prepares for the 2024 general elections, and what it means for Kerala’s political economy merits a mention.
Changing equations
Moving past the long-held approach of appeasing the Hindu population, the BJP is banking on the potential that the Christian population offers in Kerala. Kerala has a very interesting balancing equation of religious demography for a party like the BJP to tackle to win elections. Minorities such as Muslims and Christians add up to neutralise the Hindu majority in the state, although the latter has a slender edge in terms of numbers as per 2011 census records. Of the 33.4 million population in Kerala, Christians account for about 18 percent, while Muslims account for 26 percent. Both have historically supported the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which traditionally has the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the dominant Kerala Congress (M), as allies.
The two minorities have enjoyed strong political bargaining power, thanks to their trusted leaders and the patronage given to their representative parties in the UDF and to the Congress-led governments in the Centre. Though the IUML and the Kerala Congress strength were confined to some districts and pockets of Kerala, they have been detrimental for any front to cross the halfway mark of 71 to form the state government.
With the change in the government in the Centre and the passing and retirement of the trusted leaders in the UDF, the minorities are increasingly becoming insecure in the state. Though CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has presented the alternative and even accommodated the Kerala Congress (M) in its fold, the Left parties’ shrinking presence at the national level is steering the minorities in Kerala to keep their options open, and stay relevant in the political economy they represent.
With the BJP at the centre of Indian politics, the options for the Muslim community is to bank on the UDF in Lok Sabha polls and the LDF in assembly polls; however, that is not the case with the Christian community of Kerala. This, the BJP wishes to exploit.
A different route this time
The BJP's attempts to make its way into Kerala politics have also been yielding results evident in the rise in its votes and the support received from key church figures. Another significant development in this context has been the resignation of Johnny Nellore, vice-chairman of the Kerala Congress, and his announcement that a new political party will be formed with the support of the Church, which is allegedly backed by the BJP. There are rumours that many more Kerala Congress leaders will join the new party. At the same time, Kerala Congress (M) in the LDF is also fighting for their survival.
Modi has not shared the dais with the leaders of the newly-formed party during this visit, which shows that he does not want to give any political colour to sabotage the image he wants to present to the people of Kerala.
Modi's choice to visit the Sacred Heart's college was not just about influencing the young minds, but also about projecting an image of the BJP as accepting Christians and that it has good intent for the community. In recent years, Kerala has been witnessing a steady trend of youth migrating to foreign countries. They cite poor quality in higher education and lack of opportunities that fit with their aspirations as reasons for leaving the state.
All these developments in Kerala are happening at a time when the generations rooted in Communist ideologies and socialism are ageing and fading out, while the new generation is experiencing the benefit of better social and economic well-being and the products of a liberalised economy. It is, therefore, not surprising that Modi has chosen a different path to acquaint with Kerala this time.
Infrastructural boost
In India, conventionally, the nature of politics has been centred on poverty alleviation and has been a significant political tool to win elections. Kerala, in many ways, presents an anomaly in this regard, as it has already attained a good standard of living, and hence, the state's problem is more tuned towards development and infrastructural advancement over the politics of poverty.
One of the key reasons for the frustration of an average but aspiring middle-class Keralite is the lack of development in their definition of growth. Former Chief Minister K Karunakaran was famous for his quick decision-making and implementation. Since then, all the chief ministers, including those from the LDF, have kept this quickness in their approach to governance. Any infrastructure development in Kerala is discussed and appreciated for the convenience it brings to the lives of the common citizen. While introducing the Vande Bharat Express and India's first Water Metro Service, the BJP has attempted to follow this trend.
Complex society
Modi’s visit has created some waves. Yet, for the BJP to make electoral inroads, it has a long way to go. Kerala is as complex society, where the political narratives are based on socialism and communal harmony, but, with strong undercurrents and fissures. With the change in the concept of wealth creation and a strong and sizable globally connected online community, the BJP must significantly rework its strategies for Kerala.
A middle-class Keralite voter could be arrogant and egoistic, ambitious in their global outlook, and hypocritic in their bargaining power. Ergo, the BJPs challenge would be to present it as an urban middle-class party, with a middle-class liberal agenda on its cards by adopting an approach and narrative of the political economy different from the rest of the political parties in Kerala.
(D Dhanuraj is Chairman, and Nissy Solomon is Honourable Trustee (Research & Programmes), Centre for Public Policy Research, Kochi, Kerala)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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