Amarinder, BJP are strange bedfellows, but what option do they have?

Amarinder has been a proponent of regional aspirations and a robust federal structure, something that arguably is in conflict with the BJP

To imagine that Capt Amarinder Singh could piggyback on the BJP in Punjab, or vice versa, to enthuse a groundswell of votes in their favour is perhaps to oversimplify the changing dynamics of Punjab politics. If Amarinder gets into bed with the BJP in any format – be it alliance or seat-sharing or even tacit support – in the run up to the elections, neither will be able to sidestep questions on their respective ideologies and their roles in the continuing farmers’ protest.

Amarinder’s ‘friend request’ to the BJP, after being unceremoniously ousted from the chief minister’s post by the Congress, is both fraught with flaws, if not danger, as well as loaded with advantages for the two sides. So, how does this new-found love of Amarinder for the party of Amit Shah make political sense for him?

The BJP is in power at the Centre, but has remained marginalised in Punjab. Its political stock has been on the wane and the party finds itself staring at an uncertain future in the state, if not slipping into oblivion, after its long-time ally, the Akali Dal, severed ties with it last year over the three farm laws.

For Amarinder to hope that the electorate will vote for him and his new political outfit in this landscape of Punjab seems to be foolhardy. He knows well the fate of rebel outfits in Punjab and is not naïve to assume that his would be any exception. The former CM cannot win on his past laurels alone. He also realizes that with polls just around the corner, he has only a few months to make an impact that will put him back in the reckoning. Elections in Punjab come at a time when the farmers’ agitation against the Centre’s three farm laws is showing no sign of retreating.

The Congress, despite its tall claims, did not have much to flaunt during Amarinder’s tenure as CM. That’s why it perhaps wanted a change of guard, with Navjot Singh Sidhu doing the job for it. But even under the new CM Charanjit Singh Channi, the first Dalit CM of Punjab, or with Navjot Sidhu in the party driving seat and in the fast lane, it is unlikely to achieve anything so noteworthy as to justify its rule or validate its decision to humiliate and oust Amarinder as a ‘non-performing CM’.

The issues flagged by Sidhu and Channi against Amarinder may not have the desired impact, for want of time. Amarinder’s exit from the Congress will not benefit the Congress, beyond perhaps partly offsetting anti-incumbency. In the worst-case scenario, it could even prove counterproductive for it, if it is seen as an admission of non-performance for four-and-half years. This is where Amarinder’s bid to join forces with the BJP comes into play.

Amarinder knows that reaching out in his new avatar to the protesting farmers is one possible way to turn the tide in his favour as well as offer some leverage to the Punjab BJP. He has reportedly proposed a solution to break the ice between the BJP and the farmers, knowing well that neither side may be willing to prolong the confrontation any further. If he is able to clinch a deal to break the logjam, he would be back in the race, and the BJP, too, would be able to at least put up a fight.

Punjab has a sizeable agrarian vote bank and political parties have always looked to make the most of it. The Akali Dal is unlikely to find favours on this front given that the SAD had a representative in Modi’s cabinet at the time the three farm laws were cleared. Harsimran Kaur did resign thereafter and the Akali Dal severed its ties with the BJP, but it was too late, and it was seen as merely a face-saving exercise.

In his rapprochement bid with the BJP, Amarinder will have to face questions on the alleged erosion of the federal structure of the country that he had been flagging for long while he was in the Congress, especially on the issue of the farm laws. He will also have to make it clear if he would prefer corporate forces in Punjab’s farm sector or the farmers.

At the grassroots level in Punjab, villagers are inimical to the BJP and its leaders. From the days of welcoming them with garlands and singing paeans, villagers now pose questions and, at times, even ferociously drive them out. The BJP cannot even conceive of putting up a fight if its candidates do not have access to the voters. With a deal on farmers’ issues, however, Amarinder could swing things for the BJP. There seems to be some such hope.

Amarinder has also been a proponent of regional aspirations and a robust federal structure, something that arguably is in conflict with the BJP’s visible manoeuvres on the ground and in its overt posturing at the policy level.

What works for both sides, though, is that the BJP at the Centre was easy-going with Amarinder when he was CM, and he, in turn, seemed to echo Modi’s nationalist narrative partly. Be it the Balakot air strikes, or the recent extension of the operational limits of the BSF in Punjab or elsewhere, Amarinder seemed to be supporting the Modi government’s moves.

Yet, after all this, Amarinder needs candidates to fight in the Assembly polls, some of whom may come from his former party as well as splinter groups from the Akali Dal. The BJP fights in 23 seats in Punjab out of 117. A seat-sharing agreement with it could help Amarinder fill in the gaps. Whether this game plan will work or not remains to be seen.

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