<p>Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State has, of late, been making scathing attacks on China, revealing the undiplomatic side of US diplomacy. Needless to say, his words carry weight as they reflect the opinions of President Trump, who is desperately seeking to extend his White House tenancy by another four years. US elections are fought on issues that touch the lives of the average American – the economy, job losses, fuel prices, or this year, the mounting deaths due to Covid-19, now approaching 165,000. Just as in any other democracy, American politicians also need to convince their voters as to how they alone, not the opposition, can confront the evil enemy.</p>.<p>This is probably the first time in decades that any Secretary of State is using such strong words in indicting China and its Communist Party, the real power brokers in Beijing. Speaking at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, Pompeo asked, “What do the American people have to show now after 50 years of engagement with China”? and ended by asking, “Is America safe”? Close on the heels of suspending trade talks, the Trump administration took steps to ban Chinese officials responsible for prohibiting the entry of US officials into Tibet. The White House’s support to protesters in Hong Kong and defence deals with Taiwan are too explicit to be wrapped in diplomatic niceties.</p>.<p>The Quad countries have reopened the issue of South China Sea (SCS), with the US sending in its USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz aircraft carriers, which China countered by deploying its Flanker fighter jets. China has been building a network of surveillance platforms as part of its navy’s efforts to strengthen capabilities in international waters. New Delhi will have to strategise for a calibrated response mechanism in the event of the SCS turning into a flashpoint in the near future.</p>.<p>Stepping up the diplomatic confrontation with Beijing, the Trump administration ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston shut down, labelling it “a hub of spying and intellectual property theft.” Expectedly, China reciprocated by giving the marching orders to US officials at its consulate in Chengdu province. Next, Pompeo brought up the issue of detention camps for Uighurs in Xinjiang. The next step might be in the air – the US and some of its allies could stop flights to Xinjiang, and Washington could begin to list Taiwan as an independent entity for commercial aviation, hitting at the ‘One China’ policy.</p>.<p>Trump has been particularly lucky in finding a readymade enemy to bash up. The trade war with China has provided him an opportunity to blame Beijing for every ill afflicting the US economy. On its part, China stands discredited for its highly opaque trade policy, using non-tariff trade barriers, stealing intellectual property or forcing it to be handed over; the list of its errors of omission and commission are endless.</p>.<p>Contrary to Trump’s strident anti-China stand on almost any issue – from commerce to coronavirus -- the Democrats seem to favour a subtler, if not softer, approach towards Beijing. Unable to project a stronger alternative to Trump whether in terms of their presidential candidate or their policies on the economy and trade, national security or even resurrection of what seems to be a collapsed health infrastructure, the Democrats may not be able to stop a Trump re-election. But elections being what they are, a surprise turn of events can never be ruled out. After all, this year, the election will also be about Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>.<p>New Delhi has invested in Trump, but it will have to be ready with plan B in the event of a change of guard in the White House, which would come as music to Beijing’s ears. Any reversal of Trump’s trade restrictions and military stance in the region will ease the pressure on China. Any rethinking in the White House, post-election, on resuming aid and arms supplies to Islamabad will seriously impact the regional balance, putting China-Pakistan in a position of great advantage.</p>.<p>Some academics and observers are apprehensive that even Trump, if he is re-elected, would water down his attack on China, beginning by absolving Beijing of guilt for inflicting the Covid-19 pandemic on the world. Once off the hook on that, Beijing could begin to deal with Asian capitals more aggressively, weakening the nascent anti-China coalition.</p>.<p>No matter who is the White House post-November, however, the US-China rivalry and competition is not going to die down. And New Delhi cannot sit this one out, whether the next US President chooses to step up a direct confrontation with China or prefers the wiser course of offshore balancing. When the Chinese Ambassador to India and the Australian High Commissioner in New Delhi engage in a sharp back-and-forth on twitter, New Delhi must realise India is the new arena in this US-China rivalry. And it has a huge role in determining whether this remains a cold war or turns into a hot one. India needs to be on the right side on this one. But it also needs to be able to follow an independent path when needed. The increasing realisation that we need to be strong economically and militarily to avoid becoming a pawn in the international geopolitical schemes of stronger powers has to be put into action with an appropriate plan.</p>
<p>Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State has, of late, been making scathing attacks on China, revealing the undiplomatic side of US diplomacy. Needless to say, his words carry weight as they reflect the opinions of President Trump, who is desperately seeking to extend his White House tenancy by another four years. US elections are fought on issues that touch the lives of the average American – the economy, job losses, fuel prices, or this year, the mounting deaths due to Covid-19, now approaching 165,000. Just as in any other democracy, American politicians also need to convince their voters as to how they alone, not the opposition, can confront the evil enemy.</p>.<p>This is probably the first time in decades that any Secretary of State is using such strong words in indicting China and its Communist Party, the real power brokers in Beijing. Speaking at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, Pompeo asked, “What do the American people have to show now after 50 years of engagement with China”? and ended by asking, “Is America safe”? Close on the heels of suspending trade talks, the Trump administration took steps to ban Chinese officials responsible for prohibiting the entry of US officials into Tibet. The White House’s support to protesters in Hong Kong and defence deals with Taiwan are too explicit to be wrapped in diplomatic niceties.</p>.<p>The Quad countries have reopened the issue of South China Sea (SCS), with the US sending in its USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz aircraft carriers, which China countered by deploying its Flanker fighter jets. China has been building a network of surveillance platforms as part of its navy’s efforts to strengthen capabilities in international waters. New Delhi will have to strategise for a calibrated response mechanism in the event of the SCS turning into a flashpoint in the near future.</p>.<p>Stepping up the diplomatic confrontation with Beijing, the Trump administration ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston shut down, labelling it “a hub of spying and intellectual property theft.” Expectedly, China reciprocated by giving the marching orders to US officials at its consulate in Chengdu province. Next, Pompeo brought up the issue of detention camps for Uighurs in Xinjiang. The next step might be in the air – the US and some of its allies could stop flights to Xinjiang, and Washington could begin to list Taiwan as an independent entity for commercial aviation, hitting at the ‘One China’ policy.</p>.<p>Trump has been particularly lucky in finding a readymade enemy to bash up. The trade war with China has provided him an opportunity to blame Beijing for every ill afflicting the US economy. On its part, China stands discredited for its highly opaque trade policy, using non-tariff trade barriers, stealing intellectual property or forcing it to be handed over; the list of its errors of omission and commission are endless.</p>.<p>Contrary to Trump’s strident anti-China stand on almost any issue – from commerce to coronavirus -- the Democrats seem to favour a subtler, if not softer, approach towards Beijing. Unable to project a stronger alternative to Trump whether in terms of their presidential candidate or their policies on the economy and trade, national security or even resurrection of what seems to be a collapsed health infrastructure, the Democrats may not be able to stop a Trump re-election. But elections being what they are, a surprise turn of events can never be ruled out. After all, this year, the election will also be about Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>.<p>New Delhi has invested in Trump, but it will have to be ready with plan B in the event of a change of guard in the White House, which would come as music to Beijing’s ears. Any reversal of Trump’s trade restrictions and military stance in the region will ease the pressure on China. Any rethinking in the White House, post-election, on resuming aid and arms supplies to Islamabad will seriously impact the regional balance, putting China-Pakistan in a position of great advantage.</p>.<p>Some academics and observers are apprehensive that even Trump, if he is re-elected, would water down his attack on China, beginning by absolving Beijing of guilt for inflicting the Covid-19 pandemic on the world. Once off the hook on that, Beijing could begin to deal with Asian capitals more aggressively, weakening the nascent anti-China coalition.</p>.<p>No matter who is the White House post-November, however, the US-China rivalry and competition is not going to die down. And New Delhi cannot sit this one out, whether the next US President chooses to step up a direct confrontation with China or prefers the wiser course of offshore balancing. When the Chinese Ambassador to India and the Australian High Commissioner in New Delhi engage in a sharp back-and-forth on twitter, New Delhi must realise India is the new arena in this US-China rivalry. And it has a huge role in determining whether this remains a cold war or turns into a hot one. India needs to be on the right side on this one. But it also needs to be able to follow an independent path when needed. The increasing realisation that we need to be strong economically and militarily to avoid becoming a pawn in the international geopolitical schemes of stronger powers has to be put into action with an appropriate plan.</p>
