Promising start in Riyadh stuns EU, Ukraine

With the United States and Russia agreeing on a framework to end the Ukraine war, both the EU and Ukraine are running out of options

While United States and Russian officials discussed a Ukraine war deal in Saudi Arabia, an informal summit of European leaders, organised by French President Emmanuel Macron, concluded without any concrete announcements.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and senior Putin aide, Yuri Ushakov, met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was not involved in the negotiations but was scheduled to visit Riyadh on February 19, postponed his visit to not give the developments there “any legitimacy”. Similarly, no European representative was invited to participate in the negotiations.

Though these talks appear to be in the early stages, the broad contours of an agreement between the US and Russia seem to have already been settled.

The deal may include a commitment to exclude Ukraine from NATO membership, certain border adjustments for Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine enforced by European peacekeepers, and the partial lifting of US (and possibly the European Union (EU)) economic sanctions on Russia.

While European countries may initially resist, they are likely to ultimately accept it. If the US is able secure Ukraine’s agreement, Europe will have little reason to object.

While side-lined in the negotiations, European countries are clearly preparing for the outcome and their increased responsibilities. There is broad consensus among major European nations on boosting defence spending. However, most of them remain unwilling to deploy post-agreement peacekeepers in Ukraine.

This is a key issue where they will continue to push for US participation, possibly under a joint NATO command. The US may ultimately agree, provided Europeans can demonstrate that the financial burden will largely be shouldered by major European countries. This is also a sensitive issue in negotiations with Russia, which may resist the presence of foreign forces in Ukraine.

The smaller Baltic republics, which have been at the forefront of Europe’s hawkish stance on Russia over the past three years, also find themselves sidelined. While organising an informal meeting of European leaders, Macron did not invite most Nordic and Baltic nations. Denmark was the sole representative from the region. After Riyadh shock, however, he has now called a second meeting with the remaining EU nations.

Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine and a strong critic of Russia. She is upset at the US-Russia negotiations, but likely to lose some of her influence over EU’s Ukraine policy.

After the US disapproved of Ukraine’s NATO membership, Russia is creating more challenges for Europe. The Kremlin spokesperson stated that Russia has no objection to Ukraine joining the EU, acknowledging it as Kyiv’s sovereign right. Despite knowing that Ukraine's EU membership is unlikely in the foreseeable future, European leaders continue to keep the prospect alive.

The US may also support Ukraine’s EU accession. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the mutual defence clause obliges all EU member states to assist any member under attack. This means EU membership could effectively provide Ukraine with a European security guarantee.

To reassure concerned Europeans, US envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg is visiting Brussels. Addressing fears that they are being sidelined, he emphasised that their concerns will be considered and that no deal will be imposed on Ukraine. The Chinese government which supports the talks, hopes that all parties concerned and stakeholders “will take part in the peace talk process at an appropriate time”

Washington has formally asked its European allies if they would be willing to deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine. The issue has already divided Europe. The United Kingdom is willing to deploy with some conditions. Poland has declined. Germany considers it premature to talk about European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. Italy has doubts about the plan itself.

So far, both the US and Russia appear satisfied with the talks, and have agreed to explore ways to restore diplomatic ties. However, at some point, Europeans will also need to be involved since, as Rubio noted, "they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.” This suggests that Europe's role is limited to discussions on lifting sanctions on Russia rather than shaping the actual terms of the agreement — a position that seems quite humiliating for the EU.

It seems that a framework to end the Ukraine war has been agreed upon between the US and Russia. Both the EU and Ukraine are in shock. However, they may have little choice but to accept in the coming weeks at least the broader terms of the agreement.

(Gulshan Sachdeva is Chief Coordinator, DAKSHIN-Global South Centre of Excellence at RIS New Delhi, and Professor, School of International studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.