Fractured verdict will keep Nepal unstable

Nepali voters have delivered a fractured verdict in the recent general elections. No party has won a majority or even a convincing lead. The Nepali Congress has emerged as the single largest party, with 89 seats in the 275-member parliament. The opposition Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) has won 77 seats and the CPN-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) 32 seats. With the largest number of seats, the NC is the frontrunner to form the new government. But it will not be easy. Not only is its lead slender but also, its alliance partners have not performed well. And then there is a big question mark over which side the CPN-MC will jump.

Although the party was part of the NC-led government as well as the NC-led electoral alliance, whether it will stick by the NC remains to be seen. Although CPN-MC’s performance was not impressive, the party has emerged as kingmaker. The possibility of MC chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal throwing in his lot with whichever party agrees to make him Prime Minister cannot be ruled out. Dahal is reportedly bargaining hard with NC leaders to secure the Prime Minister’s post. If he does not get that, he may return to his old ally-turned-foe, the CPN-UML’s K P Sharma Oli. Meanwhile, intra-NC competition for the Prime Minister’s seat is heating up. Prime Minister and NC chief Sher Bahadur Deuba is eyeing a sixth stint as Nepal’s premier but other leaders, including Ram Chandra Poudel and Gagan Kumar Thapa, have staked their claim to the post.

Particularly impressive was the performance of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party, a five-month-old party of independent youth, which secured 21 seats. Several other new parties have managed to win seats too. This should serve as a warning to Nepal’s established parties: voters are fed up with their poor governance and are looking for new options.

Nepal’s voters have shifted away from the left. Not only did the tallies of the CPN-UML and MC diminish substantially but also, the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantrik Party has significantly boosted its presence in parliament. It has won 14 seats, up from just one seat in the previous House. Nepal’s politicians, activists and civil society fought long and hard to shake themselves free of the monarchy. However, the poor performance of successive governments and perpetual political instability have contributed to growing support for royalist forces. If Nepal’s political parties fail to deliver, royalist and undemocratic forces will gain. It is therefore important that parties and politicians put aside their preoccupation with power to provide Nepal with stable and people-centric governance. This should be the focus of the new government.