Putin’s war must end

Almost seven months after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, the latter is not only still standing as a proud nation but also appears to be pushing back strongly against the supposedly mighty Russian military. Counteroffensives by Ukrainian troops carried out since early this month have resulted in their recapturing some of the territories that the Russians had occupied. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as on September 12, Ukraine has taken back around 6,000 sq km of territory in the country’s south and northeast this month. The Ukrainian counteroffensives are reportedly gathering momentum. Amid the chaos of war, it is hard to confirm the claims being put out by the two sides. However, the Russian military itself has admitted that it has lost control of key cities in the Kharkiv region. While it is still early to describe the latest developments as a turning point in the months-long war, it is evident that things are not going too well for the Russians. Yet, the Russian setbacks could prompt Putin to escalate the war at least in the coming month. Signs of this are already evident. Russia has launched punitive attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including on water pipes and electrical power stations over the past few days. It is hitting back with a vengeance. The coming weeks are likely to witness an escalation not only because Putin will not want to be seen to be backing down but because the Ukrainian forces, enthused by their recent gains and powered by an acceleration of arms supply from the West, will escalate their efforts to recover lost ground.

That the Ukrainians have withstood the Russian invasion for so long and, importantly, are inflicting heavy losses on the Russian forces clearly indicates that Putin grossly miscalculated by ordering his army to invade Ukraine. Incursions into neighbouring territory are one thing but a full-scale war is not easy to bring to an end, especially when the invading army enters civilian areas and cities. One would have thought that Russia would have learned that lesson from the Soviet Union’s costly invasion of Afghanistan. It signalled it hadn’t when it invaded Ukraine. Now, it is paying the costs of another military misadventure.

The latest setbacks in Ukraine may not prompt Putin to pull back his troops. But the international community must offer him a way to end it with a face-saving exit. The West will be tempted to press on with the war with an eye to defeat him completely. But the war is damaging not only Russia and Ukraine but also Europe and the rest of the world. Neutral countries must step forward to play a role in ending it.