Signals from Trump camp bad news for India

It would be easy to dismiss Donald Trump’s current rhetoric as flamboyant posturing but remember that building a wall along the US-Mexico border had sounded an equally deranged solution, till it came to pass.

The second term of Donald Trump as United States president enthusiastically welcomed by the Indian government, may bring greater trouble instead of additional benefits.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar boasted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first three world leaders whose calls US President-elect Donald Trump had taken.

Citing the personal rapport between the prime minister and successive US presidents he claimed, “Let’s be honest. A lot of countries in the world today are nervous about the US. India is not one of them”.

But it is difficult to explain why no invite to Trump’s inauguration has been forthcoming. Speculation is that Jaishankar’s visit to the US over Christmas was to secure an invitation for Modi for the January 20th inauguration.

Trump’s first invitation to a foreign leader was to Victor Orban, prime minister of Hungary, who has not yet accepted it. However, it was probably the invitation to the Chinese President Xi Jinping, sent as early as November that made India nervous about being left out. This was despite Trump’s hawkish threats about charging China an additional 10% tariff, above any new tariffs.

Over and above the invitation to the inauguration, Trump even proposed some kind of a G-2, a group of two nations, with China, claiming that “China and the United States can, together solve all of the problems of the world ... And you know, he [Xi Jinping] was a friend of mine,” he claimed to the media. And here we were boasting about ‘a personal relationship’ between Modi and Trump.

Trump’s statements about solving all the global problems with China suggests that he could turn his back on prevailing Indo-Pacific strategic partnerships given his agenda of ‘America First’.

His invitation to Xi also jeopardised key regional partners, including India. It seems to make mockery of India’s status as an American ally, a member of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security dialogue between the US, India, Japan, and Australia) and part of the regional bulwark against expanding Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. As late as the first week of December, Jaishankar was praising Trump for establishing and advancing the Quad process by raising it to foreign ministers’ level.

Jaishankar may have tried to salvage the optics of a somewhat shambolic situation by trying to ensure the presence of the Indian prime minister at the inauguration.

The Trump rebuff — and rebuff it is because the other invitees include President Javier Milei of Argentina, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, and Prime Minister Georgia Meloni of Italy — is speculated to be the fallout of Modi keeping a distance from Trump when he visited the US in September. Trump in campaign mode had meanwhile claimed that Modi was a “fantastic man” and would meet him during his US visit. However, Modi did not meet either presidential candidate.

Nor does it augur well for India-US relations that Trump refers to India as a "very big abuser" of the trade relationship between the two countries. He seems to be readying for a trade conflict with India by threatening reciprocal tariffs if India continues to impose heavy taxes on US goods, including 100% tariff on some products. A trade conflict with India could impact industries like IT services, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture.

It is true that India is not being singled out for tariff threats. Trump believes that tariffs will not only correct US’ trade deficit with several countries but will also encourage manufacturing to relocate to the US and create jobs. His stand on reciprocal tariffs led to trade wars in his first terms as well.

In this context, the rather strange visit of outgoing US National security Advisor Jack Sullivan to Delhi two weeks before leaving office does not make much sense. He announced that the Biden administration had taken a step forward to operationalise the India-US nuclear deal by initiating the process for removing long-standing regulations that prevented civil nuclear co-operation between the Indian entities (like the Bhabha Atomic research Centre, department of Atomic Energy and India Gandhi Atomic Research Centre) and the US.

If the Biden administration was serious about lifting the restrictions, why did it not do so earlier? Why leave the process of implementation for the Trump administration as a challenge on the table about what the Biden administration was willing to do, seemingly daring the incoming administration to now show its willingness to implement it?

India, it would seem, has become a willing participant in putting pressure on the new US administration, which may or may not look at the move to force its hand favourably.

During his campaign Trump often sounded isolationist saying that in his term there would be no new wars. His new rhetoric of a revival of American imperialism with territorial ambitions, may turn out to be more dangerous for the global order than his previous one.

Seizing the Panama Canal, ‘buying up’ Greenland (he did not rule out the use of military force either) from a NATO partner, renaming the Gulf of Mexico and using economic pressure on Canada to join the Union as its 51st state indicate a staggering departure from international and diplomatic norms about the territorial integrity of sovereign nations.

The US president-elect is issuing doctored maps, laying claims to territory and threatening Europe in ways that threaten to destroy NATO even before he has assumed office. His “all hell will break out” threat against Hamas suggests that West Asia will be further destabilised. If the US can claim Greenland and Canada, what prevents China from claiming Taiwan?

It would be easy to dismiss Trump’s rhetoric as flamboyant posturing but remember that building a wall along the US-Mexico border had sounded an equally deranged solution, till it came to pass (even if partially). Amidst the ensuing global disorder because of new rules of power play by Trump, India may find it very difficult to put all its faith in the personal rapport that the Indian prime minister allegedly enjoys with Trump, to sustain either the relationship with the US or claims to being a global power.

(Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.