Solih's visit: Delhi's push to counter anti-India sentiment in the Maldives

Solih-Nasheed jousting could affect MDP's electoral prospects next year and queer India's pitch

In a statement that was unusually long and effusive, the President of Maldives, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih thanked India repeatedly for the various initiatives taken by New Delhi to assist his country shortly after the two sides had concluded delegation level talks in New Delhi during his recent visit to India.

But there was a reason for Solih and India to be decidedly pleased. The latest New Delhi-Malé engagement at the highest level had gone well for both. While Solih reiterated his government's 'India First' policy, India reiterated its 'Neighbourhood First' policy.

While the pro-India Solih returned to his country with plenty to show in terms of the outcomes of his visit, New Delhi was able to continue with its sustained outreach to the Indian Ocean archipelago–the aim being to ensure it does not cede strategic space to China in a country it has traditionally considered within its sphere of influence.

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The outcomes will, perhaps, also help Solih counter the anti-India sentiment that's frequently whipped up by the Opposition parties, the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People's National Congress (PNC), with the China-leaning former President Abdulla Yameen of the PPM leading the charge.

With six MoUs and promises of assistance in infrastructural development, among other things, Solih would also be hopeful that this would help build his government's image as one that worked for Maldives' rapid development. This, in turn, would bolster his electoral prospects in the presidential elections next year.

New Delhi, on its part, knows only too well that it can ill afford to slacken in its efforts to retain influence where China has made increasing inroads. Pushed to the sidelines after Yameen lost to Solih in the 2018 presidential elections, Beijing has not let up in its efforts to bounce back in the strategic calculus. New Delhi knows this only too well.

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Therefore, not only was the red carpet rolled out for Solih, but it was fairly evident that India is willing to go the extra mile to assist the Maldives with grants, Lines of Credit (LoC) and any other development assistance it may require to build its infrastructure.

During the visit, India announced that it would be extending another $100 million LoC to help the speedy completion of infrastructure projects. It has also promised the Maldives $119 million for the construction of 2,000 social housing units in addition to the money it has already provided for the earlier 4,000 housing units.

Among the big-ticket projects India is funding in the Maldives is the Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP), which will be the largest ever infrastructure project in the archipelago. In the Covid-induced new normal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Solih launched this project virtually by pressing a button to pour the concrete.

Once ready, it will surpass the Chinese-built China-Maldives Friendship bridge, inaugurated during Yameen's presidency just days ahead of the 2018 presidential polls. This bridge is the largest infrastructure project in the Maldives so far and is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

While countries have more often than not found themselves falling into the Chinese debt trap after availing of loans for infrastructure projects, India has adopted an altogether different approach in its development assistance for the neighbourhood and beyond.

It's ensured that countries do not find themselves neck-deep in debt with projects driven by local needs rather than hegemonic tendencies, as shown by China. So is the case with Maldives. In the case of the Maldives, India has thus far provided a generous $2.8 billion worth of financial assistance to the Maldives.

There was another dimension, an important one, to Solih's visit. This was the impetus both sides wanted to give to bilateral trade, which increased by 31 per cent in 2021 when it touched the $323.29 million mark against the $245.23 worth of trade in 2020.

Encouraging economic links would also help India earn both goodwill and influence in a nation where tourism is the mainstay of the economy and which took a severe hit during the pandemic but has bounced back. Two business events were organised for Solih and the business delegation that accompanied him. The Maldives is looking for foreign investments. It remains to be seen if Indian investors would find it an attractive investment destination.

With defence and security cooperation gaining increasing salience in the bilateral relationship, no less than ten paragraphs were devoted to the joint statement issued after Solih.

Significantly then, the joint statement said that the two countries would be "mindful of each other's concerns on the security and stability of the region" and that they would "not allow their respective territories to be used for any activity inimical to the other".

With increasing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region and its attempts to encircle India, New Delhi has had increasing security concerns. Hence its moves to bolster defence cooperation with countries in the IOR, among them the Maldives.

Indeed, in the Maldives, the Solih government has forged ahead with defence cooperation with India despite the Opposition stoked anti-India campaign. The campaign says that India is setting up a 'military base' in the Maldives and demands that the Maldives cancel its defence deals with India have been ignored by Solih, much to New Delhi's relief.

Solih has also clamped down on the strident 'India Out' campaign led by Yameen by issuing a decree on April 21 this year, banning it on the grounds that it posed a threat to national security.

While there has been some domestic criticism of this move, it's fairly evident that Solih does not want this campaign to jeopardise Malé-New Delhi ties or rock his government's stability as he prepares to contest for a second term as President next year.

Indeed, not just Solih and his political rivals but even New Delhi, Beijing, and Washington, among others, would be keeping a close eye on political developments in the archipelago as it gets into election mode.

Yameen has already declared his intention to run for the President's post. His return to power would leave New Delhi dismayed, given his antipathy towards India and his assiduous courting of the Chinese during his presidential tenure.

Within the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), an intense power struggle is currently on between President Solih and former President Mohamed Nasheed, who is now the Speaker of the Maldivian Parliament (Majlis).

Once childhood friends, they have now turned into bitter foes. Both have thrown their hats in the ring for the presidential post. New Delhi, in all likelihood, would rather see the sober and steady Solih re-elected instead of Nasheed, who has proven to be a rather disruptive influence for a government led by his own party.

From accusing his own party's ministers of corruption to seeking a parliamentary form of government (so that he can become PM) to, more recently, asking that the MDP resign from the coalition it leads–Nasheed has kept the pot boiling for Ibu Solih. This has only added to New Delhi's anxieties as it knows that any political instability could be to China's advantage.

The jostling for power between the two men took a rather strange turn last week after Nasheed's brother was arrested on charges of homosexuality which is outlawed in a country which adheres to Sunni Islam. Nasheed accused Solih of pandering to the hardline elements–the reference being to the right-wing Adhaalath Party, which is part of Solih's coalition.

Solih's supporters within the MDP struck back by beginning a signature campaign to move a no-confidence motion against Nasheed and remove him as Speaker. Maldives media later reported that Solih had asked that the signature campaign be called off.

But this isn't the last time one will hear of the Solih-Nasheed jousting to retain their relevance and influence. The ever-widening rift could well affect the MDP's electoral prospects next year and queer the pitch for New Delhi if the China-backed Yameen seizes power once again.

(Parul Chandra is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.