JOIN USThe Bihar accord: Will Congress concede leadership for 2024?
Politics is for power. Contestants who seek power have to either vanquish their adversaries to submission in a direct fight. Or inflict a defeat by aiding and abetting a third-party takeover. Irrespective of the tactical manoeuvres involved, the aim is to demonstrate one's ability to inflict damage on opponents- directly or indirectly, overtly or covertly.
Sample this. Karnataka strongman BS Yeddiyurappa left the BJP ahead of the 2013 assembly polls. His party stood a poor fourth in the ensuing elections, but the Lingayat leader damaged the BJP's prospects by splitting non-Congress votes. Thus, he was rehabilitated in earnest and handed over the reins of power again.
Kalyan Singh used the same playback to claw his way back into the BJP twice.
Where Kalyan Singh and BS Yeddiyurappa succeeded, others like Uma Bharti and Babulal Marandi failed. This is why the terms and conditions of their rehabilitation were far less rewarding.
Breaking ties with the BJP ahead of the 2015 assembly elections, Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar unequivocally exhibited his ability to be the disruptor-in-chief in Bihar politics. He showed that with a 15 to 20 per cent vote share, he could swing the elections either way - in favour or against- the BJP-led NDA in the state, which sends 40 seats to the Lok Sabha.
Ostensibly, BJP did not hesitate to take him back into the fold ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Once again, the JD(U)-BJP combine trounced the RJD-led alliance to add three dozen seats to the NDA's kitty.
The latest somersault by the Bihar chief minister, too, has its genesis in the political positioning and preparations currently underway for the next Lok Sabha polls in 2024. Make no mistake, the Bihar rejig isn't as simple as it seems.
It alludes to a larger understanding reached between the anti-BJP political forces in the heartland states where the BJP has done exceedingly well in the last two general elections to fortify its position in the Lok Sabha.
Mark Nitish Kumar's recent response on being the opposition prime ministerial candidate for 2024. There is a qualitative shift in his stand on donning a role at the national level. Read between the lines. Earlier, all such queries elicited staple-one-liners on his commitment and objective of serving "the people of Bihar". Post realignment, he seems ready to work for the larger opposition unity.
The third pole in the Bihar rejig
Bihar developments have far more significant implications. The Congress is the critical third pole in this realignment triggered to disrupt the socio-political equations in the entire heartland belt from where the BJP has drawn its maximum strength in the last two elections.
The BJP's growing domination in national politics causes an existential crisis for the Congress and smaller parties. The Congress party's various attempts to create a coherent narrative and offer credible leadership to challenge the BJP at the Centre and in states have come to nought. Only regional satraps who have organically risen up the ranks have shown the stomach for a contest.
So far, the Congress' claims of leading an anti-BJP alliance at the Centre have rested on its numerical strength in Parliament and its pan-India presence. As such, the party has been unwilling to concede the leadership position to any regional outfit.
The Bihar developments allude to broader contours of both pre and post-poll agreements - including projection of the PM candidate have been threshed out between the heartland regional parties and the Congress.
In this process, has the Congress agreed to keep its leadership claims in abeyance for the larger opposition unity? We will get a fair idea as the blueprint of the Bihar accord will emerge in the coming months.
Nitish Kumar: Cog in the wheel
The BJP's success in national politics in the last ten years rests on its ability to use the prevailing social and caste tensions to its advantage. It has emerged as the most preferred party of the backward classes, which constitute more than 50 per cent of the Indian electorate. The party has been a beneficiary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to strike a delicate balance between the BJP's traditional upper caste-middle class voters with subaltern communities.
For the United Progressive Alliance or whatever remains of it, Nitish Kumar brings three things to the table. As a central minister and as chief minister of Bihar, he has over two decades of administrative experience. Personally, he has never been mired in any corruption controversy.
Most importantly, Kumar carries the correct caste credentials to take on the BJP. The JD(U) leader belongs to the backward community in the Hindi heartland. Remember that no leaders from the intermediate agrarian communities - except for Chaudhary Charan Singh's brief stint- have made it to the top of the political executive at the Centre. Mulayam Singh Yadav came closest to being the prime minister, but his chances were scuttled at the last minute.
And last but not least, the Bihar CM belongs to a sub-caste among the OBCs - the Kurmis - which is spread across north, west and central India. From Patels in Gujarat to Kurmis and Senthwars in UP and Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh to Kunabis in Maharashtra and Patidars - though spread thin, they constitute a big chunk of the backward population.
The Congress has woefully failed to challenge Modi wherever it is in a direct contest against the BJP. To make a contest out of the 2024 elections, it has to undercut the BJP's tally in the heartland states substantially.
With less than two years to go for the next Lok Sabha polls, its leader Sonia Gandhi seems to have firmed up a strategy.
(Sumit Pande is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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