The exit dilemma

TOUGH CHOICE

Newly elected US President Joe Biden now faces one of his most crucial foreign policy challenges in violence-beset Afghanistan where his two predecessors, and like him, had publicly stated countless times that they would exit from America’s longest and never-ending war.

Only 2,500 American and around 7,500 NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) troops remain in Afghanistan now, bolstering the beleaguered Ashraf Ghani regime in Kabul. And the chances of their withdrawal throwing Afghanistan into total political turmoil, accompanied by grave fratricidal violence, cannot be denied.

As admitted, America’s 21-year war has cost the US exchequer $2 trillion, leaving 2,300 US soldiers and nearly 38,000 Afghan civilians dead.

Countless negotiations for achieving peace and a stable interim government in Kabul to replace the democratically elected President Ashraf Ghani’s dispensation have been ongoing in Doha (Qatar) between the US and delegates from the increasingly assertive Taliban since a couple of years.

That outgoing US President Donald Trump had appeared to have been in a tearing hurry to exit Afghanistan, perhaps more out of building his own image and over electoral benefits and not Afghanistan’s interests, is rather clear by now.

President Biden, on the other hand, though committed to ensuring a total withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, realises the bloody mess that will result if the US withdraws by May 1, 2021, as mutually decided by the US and the Taliban at the Doha parleys in February 2020.

Recent signals emanating from Washington do point to the fact that though Biden’s administration is committed towards honouring the Trump-Taliban deal to withdraw all US troops by May 1, 2021, some re-thinking on the deadline appears to be in the offing.

A few days back, Biden in an interview with ABC News, expressed that it was going to be “tough” to meet the May 1 deadline, and opined that it “was not a very solidly negotiated deal that (Trump)….. worked out.” President Biden also stated that even if the May deadline did not take place, American troops are not going to be in Afghanistan “much longer”.

It is interesting to recall that Joe Biden, while serving as the vice-president with then President Barack Obama, had cautioned his president against any hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan till a semblance of peace and stability had returned to that violent nation.

And now, the ball is in his court. America is staring at a situation with the overall security scenario having worsened owing to the Taliban on the ascendancy and in near control of virtually the entire Afghan countryside.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the other day that “the president’s goal is very, very clear…….. to get the troops back” and to not permit Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorists and posing any threats to the US.

After his maiden visit to India (where the Afghan situation and India’s role there would have certainly been discussed), US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin also paid a surprise visit to Kabul and interacted with President Ghani and other top US and Afghan military officials. Avoiding questions about the Taliban not keeping their part of the commitment as negotiated in Doha, Austin made some non-committal noises and would have flown back to the US rather worried at the worsening situation in Afghanistan.

Revisiting policy

The Taliban, since the Feb 2020 negotiations, though not targeting foreign troops, have been consistently indulging in large-scale violent acts against their own people, especially in the Afghan government, NGOs and women activists.

That the Taliban is just waiting for the US and other foreign troops to leave and then take over the reins of power in Kabul, in utter disregard of any negotiated settlement, is more than obvious. In particular, the Taliban, in keeping with their medieval mindset, will take their nation back to the dark ages.

Both Afghan women and school-going children are terrified at their prospects under the cruel, fundamentalist regime of the terrorist outfit.

Meanwhile, India too will have to re-visit its Afghan policy: talk to the Taliban or not? Though India has not been overly involved in the political discussions over Afghanistan, barring attending once as observer in Doha, it is also a fact that both Pakistan and the wily Chinese in tandem had managed to keep India at bay over the future of Afghanistan with a little support from, amazingly, Russia.

Now, the Americans have asked India to attend the forthcoming five nations’ conference on the future political contours of Afghanistan.

India, much respected in Afghanistan owing to its policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of that nation and being the largest regional donor of humanitarian aid to Kabul, must continue with its support to Ashraf Ghani or whoever heads the democratically elected government.

Supporting the Taliban’s entry in any interim government would be a myopic step, if ever taken by India, which must not, directly or indirectly, support a terror-driven Taliban dispensation.

India must ask the UN to station a combined force in Afghanistan till political stability returns to that hapless land. It must warn its strategic ally, the US, not to exit Afghanistan in haste, for the repercussions would be very adverse for the entire region. The US and India need to be on the same page as regards shaping Afghanistan’s future government.

(The writer, a security expert, served as first director general, Defence Intelligence Agency)