United States’ changing attitude towards Narendra Modi

For 10 years, the US and Western powers courted Narendra Modi. That seems to be changing now

Addressing an election rally in Rajasthan, president of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) J P Nadda declared that half the leaders of the Opposition parties were in jail while the other half were out on bail. That was as eloquent a description as any of how the electoral field has been skewed by crippling the Opposition.

The world has taken note.

The arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on the eve of the general elections was first criticised by Germany and then by the United States and even the United Nations. The German reaction was followed promptly by the US State Department spokesman who said that the US was “closely monitoring” the arrest of Kejriwal and that “we encourage a fair, transparent, and timely legal process for Chief Minister Kejriwal.” When India summoned acting US deputy ambassador Gloria Berbena to protest these comments as “unwarranted”, the State Department not only ignored the protest, it reiterated its concerns about Kejriwal, and escalated its critical stance by commenting on the freezing of the Congress’ accounts.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar referred to the US comments as being “outdated habits” and not maintaining the “maryada” (propriety) of international relations. “We should not be passing comments about each other's politics,” he said.

Jaishankar’s reaction seemed like double-speak considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had in September 2019, given the call “Ab ki baar Trump Sarkar” at a rally in Houston, an endorsement of Donald Trump in the run up to 2020 US presidential election. He too had crossed the same line of propriety.

The US criticism of the Modi regime may be prompted by several geopolitical factors — India’s refusal to condemn unequivocally Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, continued import of Russian oil for re-export, and blowing hot and cold on Israel’s war of Gaza.

Two other public incidents which seem to have irked the US are the Canadian government’s charge that Indian officials were involved in the murder of its national Hardeep Singh Nijjar and the attempted murder of a US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, allegedly planned by an Indian government agent, on American soil. Both Nijjar and Pannun were seen by India as supporting Khalistani terrorists.

The US decision to castigate India publicly on these issues was a considered one. India was forced to take US anger on board. After an investigation, India claimed that the attempt on Pannun was the work of a ‘rogue operative’ who had since been transferred out, presumably from the intelligence organisation he worked for. What this fails to explain is how a rogue officer supposedly working solo, had in his possession a video of Nijjar’s killing in Canada which was handed over to the hit man hired to kill Pannun.

The explanation is unlikely to stop the US Department of Justice proceedings against those involved in the attempted murder. The issue, therefore, will remain alive for quite a while. As if this were not enough, now claims that India was also behind the assassination of 20 wanted terrorists in Pakistan have also surfaced, quoting Indian intelligence sources.

The international disapproval has already prevented the Modi government and the ruling BJP from using these incidents, to ramp up Modi’s strongman profile as the last bulwark of India’s national security. The image is considerably frayed after China occupied 1,000 sq km of land claimed by India in Eastern Ladakh, without firing a bullet.

It has also held back his party from using Khalistani separatism as an election issue.

US President Joe Biden declining India’s invitation to be the Chief Guest at the Republic Day Parade earlier this year was a sign that the US wants to do nothing that might be interpreted as bolstering Modi’s domestic image. This stance is quite different from 2019 when the US chose to not criticise India on the Balakot strikes that took place on the eve of the last general elections in 2019.

The US has also been critical of domestic violations of human rights violations and curtailment of religious freedom in India.

Chairman of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) Abraham Cooper was sharp in his assessment of the situation in India in an October 2023 hearing: “Religious freedom conditions in India have notably declined in recent years. Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Dalits, and Adivasis are experiencing increased levels of attacks and acts of intimidation. Authorities have continued to suppress minority voices and those advocating on their behalf. These trends, and their implication for U.S. foreign policy, should not be ignored.”

The Democrats already stand in danger of losing the overwhelming support of American-Muslim votes in the 2024 presidential election. Exit polls from 2016 showed that 69 per cent of American Muslims had voted for Biden with 17 per cent opting for Trump. This time around, such is the anger of American Muslims and Arabs against Biden that White House had to cancel the Iftar it had planned for them. Many refused to attend because “it would be completely unacceptable for us to break bread with the very same White House that is enabling the Israeli government to starve and slaughter the Palestinian people in Gaza.” Facilitating Modi’s advent for a third term will only make matters worse for Biden’s re-election as the BJP government is widely perceived to be following anti-minority policies.

So far, the election campaign in India has not seen the high-pitched religious polarisation and anti-Pakistan rhetoric that have been a winning formula for the BJP. Perhaps this is because attacking the Muslim community can no longer be described as an ‘internal affair’ of India, while fanning hatred against a US-friendly regime in Islamabad will fetch diminishing returns in India-US relations.

For 10 years, the US and Western powers courted Modi. Both because of the size of the Indian market and positioning India as a strategic partner against China. In wooing Modi, they ignored the democratic backsliding under his rule, and the deliberate marginalisation of the minorities in his pursuit of an illiberal Hindu majoritarian State.

Yet there seems to be a perceptible change in the air on the eve of Modi seeking a third term.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.