Why Gupkar alliance should contest J&K polls separately

Given the experience of the DDC elections and the mood among the cadres of the NC and PDP, the coming together of these allies during the elections may harm each other

Last week, the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) announced that the alliance would jointly contest the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls. Two key alliance constituents - the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)- announced their plans separately.

However, the alliance, formed a day before Parliament repealed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019, to fight for safeguarding the region's constitutional status, does not have a good experience of running in the elections together.

During the 2020 District Development Council ( DDC) elections, the first electoral exercise that the alliance undertook after the Centre read down Article 370 and 35A, the key constituents of the coalition fielded proxy candidates against each other, which helped the BJP open its account in the Kashmir Valley. And this was for the first time in the long and controversial electoral history of Jammu and Kashmir that the BJP had won any seat from the Valley, that too in Srinagar.

Although the PAGD swept the polls in the Valley, winning 110 seats, 50 independents made it to the coveted councils. Many of these candidates from the Valley later joined the newly minted Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP), considered a quisling outfit or the BJP's B-team. Most of these independents in the Valley were the disgruntled leaders from the NC and PDP who were not given tickets during the seat-sharing process.

Moreover, in many constituencies, the PDP and NC ran their proxy candidates against the officially fielded PAGD candidates. Sajad Lone, who heads the People's Conference (PC) and wields some influence in the northern parts of Kashmir, cited the same reason for parting ways with the PAGD even though there is a general feeling that he does the BJP's bidding in the Valley and quit the alliance after the BJP put the squeeze on him.

The grassroots leaders of the NC and PDP do not appear to be in a mood to support joint candidates, particularly in the Valley. These leaders, concerned about their ambitions, fear losing their party tickets in the seat-sharing process. There is more than one candidate from each party keen to contest from any given constituency, which has already resulted in loosely knit factions within these parties at district levels. Under such circumstances, the PAGD's decision to fight assembly polls together will create a legion of disgruntled leaders who will contest independently and harm the larger interests of the PAGD.

Leaders disgruntled at being denied tickets could join political outfits like the JKAP and Lone's PC, as happened earlier after the results of the DDC elections were declared. Both these parties could have the edge over their political rivals, given their proximity to the BJP. Unlike the PAGD leaders, who are known to be barred from travelling on security considerations, the leaders of the JKAP and PC should be able to visit their constituencies to meet their voters or hold public rallies unhindered. Any calls of a poll boycott by militants, as the PAGD candidates had alleged during the DDC elections, would also favour them.

There is no denying that people in the Valley are on the side of the PAGD, and there is a strong sentiment against the BJP and those doing its bidding. But multi-cornered polls fought in a first-past-the-post system is altogether a different game.

The PAGD's inability to organise meetings at the district and tehsil levels has also failed to consolidate the workers of its constituents and readying them to put a unified show during the elections. The alliance has held its meetings, attended only by its top leadership, either in Srinagar or Jammu and made barely any effort to reach out to their middle and lower rung leaders at the ground level. Additionally, the leaders did not hold any joint public rallies.

The key constituents of the PAGD - the NC, PDP, CPI (M), CPI and Awami National Conference (ANC) - must contest the elections, whenever they are held, separately with a larger understanding of entering a post-poll alliance while steering clear of targeting each other to defeat the BJP and its proxies. Otherwise, given the experience of the DDC elections and the mood among the cadres of the NC and PDP, the coming together of the allies during the elections could end up harming each other.

(The writer is a journalist based in Srinagar)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.