Why is Taiwan crucial for the two superpowers?

It is being said a conventional war between US and China is probable, if not possible, in the next two or three decades

Taiwan, a small 35,000 square kilometres island country in East Asia, is officially known as the Republic of China (ROC). Through a series of events, Taiwan finds itself in the crosshairs of the two superpowers, the United States and China (officially, the People's Republic of China).

Taiwan's population has been on a declining path for the past few decades and stood at 23.6 million in 2020. Like many other countries, it faces the challenges of an ageing population, with the fertility rate of Taiwanese women reaching .9 in 2010. Several arguments have been made for and against Taiwan being a part of China, most recently through the Instrument of Surrender by the Japanese when they agreed to transfer Taiwan to China. This has been a contested issue and has been debated at the international platforms since 1943 when it was announced through a press communique.

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There were some whispers in the media when the Chinese Premier, Xi Jinping, chose not to attend the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, alluding to health concerns in the country. Reports said it was more owing to the growing discontent in China, given the slowed growth rates during and after the pandemic. It may have beaten the United States to become the richest country in the world, an aspiration shared by the vast populace; this is a number ($514 trillion) that hides many other details. This is the total net worth of all individuals in the country and does not signify the average or the median wealth.

In both these cases, China does not figure in the top 5. Those coveted places are occupied by Switzerland (at $673,960), Australia (at $238,070), respectively. Other issues Xi faces include challenges to his influence in the Communist party, which seems far-fetched – but he is wise enough to learn from history. For now, Xi has taken care of the political opposition, but he knows no influence is permanent, no leadership permanent. Cal Xia is the latest public intellectual to be expelled from the party for speaking out against the leader. She was vehement in her diatribe that Xi's series of bad decisions were ominous signs for the Chinese people – with emphasis on the decisions made by Xi during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Alluding to the other existing populist governments globally, which continually promise to "make their countries great again", it is imperative for the Chinese premier to reclaim China's glorious past as an illusory utopia only he can lead his countrymen to. The ambition of bringing Taiwan into its fold, then, becomes a means to that end. To seal the permanence of his rule and legacy, the Communist Party released a resolution summing up its 100-year history recently. This is only the third such document in a century. It is clear Xi wants his name indelibly imprinted in Chinese history – exemplified by the fact that his name appears 22 times in the resolution. The" 'father of the country', Mao Zedong's name appears 18 times, and his predecessors, Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao, appear once.

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However, Xi knows creating new bastions in Indian territory will not count for much for the Chinese. It is Taiwan that they want, having squashed the Hong Kong protests once and for all. So, given this background, what are the possible scenarios? Will China try to annex Taiwan? Will the US continue its tirade and stop China from engaging in the act? Is there a possibility of the two superpowers going to war over Taiwan?

Let's explore the American interest in Taiwan. While it may seem the US is using the island country to negotiate trade terms with China, its promise of defending Taiwan goes back a few decades. Last month, in October 2021, US President Joe Biden said the US will defend Taiwan if China attacks it. His Secretary of State, Anthony Bilken, also called on the UN to let Taiwan participate in its discussions. He also called on countries to bring Taiwan back to the UN, where it was removed from in 1971. In conversations with the press, Bilken clarified the US president was only conforming with the existing Taiwan Relations Act, signed by President Carter in 1979, which promoted "robust relations between the US and Taiwan" and "promote peace and security in the determination of Taiwan's future."

Political opinion is divided about the timing and the possibility of a conventional war between the US and China. It is being said it is probable, if not possible, in the next two or three decades. The political commentators elaborate that in the event of China losing the conventional war, it might resort to a full-scale nuclear option. This scenario is too far away in the future to make an educated guess – but the overtures of the two heads of state would likely continue. Soon after the video call between President Biden and President Xi, the Chinese media went into a full-scale propaganda drive, calling it a victory in favour of China. This is symptomatic of populist governments globally, perhaps initiated by Benito Mussolini's playbook in the 1930s. Xi, however, may be writing his own playbook to rule the world.

(The author is a former Chief of Communications with UNICEF in New York, where he worked for more than a decade)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.