Why OBC quota demand is politically tricky for Modi government

Parliament has passed a historic legislation, the ‘Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam’ (or the Women’s Reservation Bill), ensuring one-third of seats for women in the lower house of Parliament and state legislatures. This move aims to bridge the gender gap in politics, empower women, and combat gender bias in political structures. However, full implementation awaits the completion of the next census and delimitation of election constituencies, a process that may span several years.

This landmark legislation treats women as a unified political constituency. Yet, opposition parties, including the Congress and other proponents of ‘social justice’, demand reserved seats for women from Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who are among the disadvantaged castes.

To provide context, on March 8, 2010, while the world celebrated women's day, in India, the Women's Reservation Bill faced vehement opposition in the Rajya Sabha from Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Sharad Yadav, who were prominent figures in Mandal politics. They had obstructed the Bill in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2008.

Lalu Prasad went so far as to declare, "This Bill is political dacoity; we will not tolerate it," while Mulayam Singh Yadav was equally blunt, stating, "We will cross all Lakshman Rekhas and stop it." The leaders emerging from the ‘social justice’ and ‘social engineering’ movements following the Mandal era argued that the Bill primarily favoured the influential upper class, reinforcing the perception that only this section would benefit.

This assertion still holds weight today, especially in the Opposition's call for a sub-quota for the OBCs and other marginalised sections within the Women's Reservation Bill. The smooth passage of the Bill indicates the waning influence of regional leaders born from Mandal politics in the 1990s. Factors such as aggressive Hindutva, the welfare policies of the Narendra Modi government, and the broad social coalition built by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after 2014 have weakened caste-based politics.

The Opposition's convergence in supporting the Bill aims to corner the ruling dispensation and portray it as anti-OBC, harnessing significant vote-banks in its favour. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi expressed regret for not including OBC reservations in the 2010 Bill.

In the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the I.N.D.I.A bloc has demanded a caste census. The Women's Reservation Bill has provided them with a platform to intensify calls for sub-quotas and a caste census, aiming to resurrect Mandal politics and counter the BJP’s consolidation of the Hindu vote.

The dilemma facing the Modi government is that accommodating the ‘quota within quota’ demand may trigger calls for an immediate caste census and political reservations for the OBCs in general seats in the Lok Sabha and state legislatures. Currently, the Constitution provides political reservations for the Schedule Castes and Schedule Tribes, and not for OBCs in these legislative bodies.

A historical perspective on the women's Bill reveals that the Joint Parliamentary Committee led by Geeta Mukherjee recommended reservations for women from backward sections if the Constitution were amended to allow OBC quotas. The committee also proposed reservations for women in the Rajya Sabha and state legislative councils, which the Constitution does not permit. However, most women's reservation Bills, including the current one, sidestep these contentious demands to avoid a backlash on sensitive reservation issues.

Currently, the Supreme Court is reviewing numerous pending petitions regarding the validity of reservations and the necessity of a caste census to assess the actual representation of the SCs/STs and the OBCs in employment and educational systems. The inclusion of the OBC reservation in the Women's Reservation Bill renews the call for adequate OBC representation in politics, education, and public employment, especially given their substantial numbers.

As India has not conducted a caste census, the precise population of the OBCs remain unknown. However, various sources, such as the United District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE) school enrolment data, estimate the OBC population at around 45 per cent. The Mandal Commission, at the time, suggested that the OBC population was approximately 52 per cent.

The constitutionality of the OBC quota in the Women's Reservation Bill presents a complex legal challenge. While the Constitution allows for reservations based on caste, class, and gender, introducing dual quotas in a single Bill could face legal hurdles. The outcome hinges on how the law is crafted, and whether it withstands judicial scrutiny.

Historically, the judiciary has upheld the importance of affirmative action and reservations to rectify historical injustices and ensure social justice. However, courts also assess the proportionality and necessity of such reservations. To pass legal muster, the government must demonstrate that the OBC quota is a proportionate and necessary measure to address the specific challenges faced by OBC women.

Ultimately, the courts will make the final determination on whether such a quota aligns with the law.

The demand for an OBC quota in the Women's Reservation Bill encompasses multifaceted issues, raising complex questions and challenges. This mirrors the ongoing struggle for equal representation in Indian politics and the imperative to address the intersectional identities of OBC women.

Addressing the intricate issue of political reservations for the OBCs and a caste census, stemming from the demand for OBC quotas in the Women’s Reservation Bill, demands meticulous preparation, political consensus, and the ability to withstand legal scrutiny. Mishandling these issues has the potential to pose a significant political challenge to the Modi government shortly before the 2024 general elections.

(With inputs from Anu Yadav, Research Scholar)

(Mahendra Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.