Why those big Covid-induced changes aren’t coming anytime soon

People thought the pandemic offered a springboard for sizable leaps, but have now come to realise that the platform wasn’t springy enough

It is in the nature and business of thought leaders and think tanks to sniff out opportunities in times of crises and identify drivers for better tomorrows in the glooms of the present. So, it is no surprise that the first few months of the Covid-19 pandemic saw much writing and many webinars on how the pandemic-induced shock and pain, global in sweep and unmatched in living memory, could – should – trigger a rethink on governance and business models and attitudes to poverty, inequality, and the environment.

At another level, individuals with the luxury of reflection during extended lockdowns found themselves pondering over their hectic, privileged lives and saw scope for improving work-life balance, building social empathy, and figuring out environmentally sustainable choices for themselves. Of course, expectations were modest at the other end of the socio-economic spectrum. Food, a little liquidity to meet basic and emergency expenses, and a break from high-handed law enforcement, would suffice.

Overall, the pandemic came to be read, at least in certain vocal circles, as an unprecedentedly compelling if harsh reminder for acting on several meaningful, long-standing agendas. Here’s a sampler.

Overwhelmed health systems, unequal health and livelihood impacts, and generally floundering centralised response management re-affirmed the case for larger, better-designed social sector spends and empowered local governments.

Disrupted global supply chains and hurting small domestic businesses served as added prompts for going local. The Greens had been talking of it anyway. The disproportionate burden of the pandemic in large urban centers, more so among poor and informal sector workers and in low-income neighborhoods, confirmed, once again, the need for better planned, better resourced, more resilient, and equitous cities.

For businesses, the lockdown pause was considered a time to acclimatise to work-from-home arrangements and less travel, contemplate new supply chains, find fresh value propositions for stakeholders internal and external. It also dawned on many that frontline and delivery workers deserved respectful treatment and saner working conditions.

There were other constructive possibilities spoken of, too many to list here, but the larger point remains unchanged. The early days of the pandemic, troubled as they were, came laced with silver linings, stoking hopes that the pandemic’s powerful jolts would spark introspections and shake inertias on a range of issues bearing on the prosperity, well-being, and future of the planet.

So, why have these important conversations abated in recent months? The most likely explanation is that the dreamers have had a reality check. Individuals actually thought that the pandemic offered a springboard for sizable leaps, but realised soon that the platform wasn’t springy enough.

Leaching the zing has been three factors.

One: Government coffers are running low, and the job of containing an unrelenting pandemic has left decision-makers sapped. Exhausted minds and coffers have found it difficult to engage with proposals for a new social and economic order.

Two: The rich and powerful remain entrenched as ever – and their reflex to cling and add to turf, wealth, and power may actually have been reinforced with the insecurities the pandemic has sparked.

This has manifested itself in the tussle over GST compensations between the Center and states but will more broadly test the notion that a catastrophe can rapidly conjure enabling conditions for correcting power and resource distribution imbalances. Lobbies seeking more incentives and concessions for wealth creators are re-mobilized and active already, as are voices wondering if Green considerations should be allowed to get in the way of economic recovery.

Three: The appetite for change has lowered all around. Everyone wants to go back to how things were. Sure, it wasn’t perfect, but it was ‘normal’, a state that wasn’t comfortable for the majority but had come to be accepted, accustomed to.

Now, amidst an upheaval that has only worsened things for all but those on the top of the pyramid, the world is longing for that familiar low-equilibrium. And it would prefer tried-and-tested ways of getting there, unjust and unsustainable as they may be, and getting there quickly, rather than experiment with bold stuff at the risk of further upheaval and uncertain outcomes.

To those in the business of dreaming change and mounting struggles for realising it, the above aren’t new challenges. Power is ceded reluctantly, and social and economic disruption is something nobody, rich, middle-class, or poor, looks forward to.

We may then be looking at the pandemic causing incremental movements of the needle – and not the energetic ones that were predicted or hoped for. That would be a pity. Surely things shouldn’t have to get any worse to create space for the better.

(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and writer)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.