Will Assam agreement end insurgency?

While the Memorandum of Settlement signals a historic moment, the anti-talks faction, led by Paresh Barua, poses a persistent threat

A Memorandum of Settlement, signed on December 29 in New Delhi by the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Assam Government, and the pro-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, marked a watershed moment in Assam’s insurgency history. The very mention of the pro-talks faction implies the existence of an anti-talk faction, which is led by Paresh Barua, the head of ULFA’s military wing. Barua, one of the six founders of the outlawed outfit, continues to advocate for the state’s sovereignty.

 Arabinda Rajkhowa and Paresh Baruah, along with Anup Chetia, Pradip Gogoi, the late Bhupen Borgohain, advisor, also known as the father of ULFA, and Bhadreshwar Gohain, self-styled vice president of ULFA, founded the outfit on April 7, 1979. The six radicalised young men met at the Rang Ghar in Sibsagar with the objective of pulling out the state from the morass of insecurity that had crept into the minds of the indigenous denizens of Assam due to the continued influx of people from other regions of the country, particularly from erstwhile East Pakistan following its liberation by Indian troops. Rang Ghar has historical significance as the oldest amphitheatre in Asia, where the Ahom Kings witnessed bullfights and other sports.

Around the same time, the All Assam Students Union launched a state-wide agitation against the influx of migrants from Bangladesh, paralysing the state administration. While the agitation ended with the Assam Accord signed on August 15, 1985, it propelled a student leader, Prafulla Mahanta, into the limelight. Mahanta formed the Asom Gana Parishad, a political party, and contested the elections the same year. With a convincing margin, he took over the reins of Assam as its chief minister.

Meanwhile, the militant outfit ULFA resorted to mass violence across the state, forcing the Centre to declare it a terrorist outfit. Kidnappings, killings, extortions, and bomb blasts became the order of the day. In 1990, President’s rule was imposed and the Armed Forces Special Powers Act was enforced in the state, empowering the armed forces to arrest, search, or shoot anyone on suspicion without warrant. Operation Bajrang, launched by the Army on November 28, 1990, resulted in the arrest of 1,221 ULFA insurgents, causing a setback to the outfit. Under intense pressure from the Army, Central Reserve Police Force, and state police, many fled to neighbouring Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Bhutan and established camps in the jungles.

In 2003, Bhutan’s Army, following Indian advice, flushed out all militants from its territory. In a fierce offensive launched by the Bhutanese Army and 30 camps of ULFA, the National Democratic Front of Bodos and the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation were destroyed. Over 650 insurgents were either killed or arrested, along with a huge haul of arms and ammunition.

With the return of Sheikh Hasina as prime minister of Bangladesh in 2009, top leaders of ULFA who had taken shelter in that country were arrested and subsequently handed over to the Indian authorities, where they were incarcerated and later released. After the release of Arabinda Rajkhowa in 2011, a tripartite ceasefire agreement was signed by the Centre, the Assam government, and ULFA on September 3, 2011. Anup Chetia, too, was released on bail in December 2015. It has taken over 12 years to finally sign the memorandum of settlement and disband the pro-talks outfit.

Having disbanded ULFA, Arabinda Rajkhowa, along with 726 cadres, will soon be vacating the camps and surrendering all weapons to the authorities to join the mainstream. Paresh Baruah, the anti-talks leader and commander-in-chief of the military wing of ULFA, continues to stay across the Myanmar-China border and operate against the Indian forces, having renamed his outfit ULFA (Independent). With about 200 insurgents taking shelter with him in Myanmar, he is striving to strengthen his cadres by recruiting youngsters. Three youths who were on their way to join the ranks of ULFA (I) last month were nabbed by the police in Changlang. While being taken to Dhola, the trio attempted to escape and were shot in the legs. Rather perplexing as to how police could shoot accurately on their legs when they attempted to escape under the cover of darkness.

Asked to comment on the peace talks, Paresh Baruah is reported to have said that the outcome of the talks is zero. “We are not dismayed, discouraged, or surprised by this. We don’t feel like commenting on it. For me, the deal is less descriptive and more ruminative,” he said on December 30, 2023.

Though the Assam Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, sounds optimistic that he will be able to persuade Paresh Baruah to give up violence and join the mainstream, he does not see any prospects for talks with him in the near future. He claims to be in touch with Paresh Baruah directly.

While Paresh Baruah attempts to strengthen his outfit, the Director General of Assam Police has warned the youths against joining the outfit. A drone attack on a ULFA (I) camp across the Myanmar border on January 7 is reported to have injured two insurgents. The insurgents suspect that the Indian security forces dropped the bombs. The DGP has further cautioned the youths that ULFA (I) insurgents have punished 40 of their comrades with capital punishment because they aspired to return to the mainstream.

The Centre and the state may exult that they have succeeded in bringing about the final deal with the pro-talk ULFA insurgents. But the ULFA (I) led by Paresh Baruah can be a formidable outfit to deal with, considering the fact that he still has over 200 insurgents in his cadre who can pose serious problems by disturbing the peace in Assam. Another insurgent outfit, the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation, though comparatively a smaller one with about 200 in its cadres, also needs to be brought to the negotiation table for the restoration of complete peace in the state.

(The writer is a retired Inspector General of Police, CRPF)