Yogi's win would change BJP's internal matrix

Adityanath leading his party to a win would cause much heartburn in the BJP as it will affect its pecking order for 2024

Good governance is about managing the aspirations of the largest possible chunk of the citizens. It entails ensuring the satisfaction of not only the majority but also some sections of the minorities.

If judged through this lens, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's challenge is to prove that he has performed in the last five years. No other criteria will help the 49-year-old monk, for any hysteria is transient and does not yield much result in a democracy. Adityanath has the enviable distinction of being the first Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief minister of Uttar Pradesh to have ruled a full five-year term. This February will decide whether he is a performer.

One after another, ministers and MLAs leaving the BJP is an ominous sign for Adityanath, but Mamata Banerjee proved in the West Bengal Assembly election in May 2021 that such desertions do not mean much if the leader is popular. Such popularity is directly related to the fulfilment of the people's aspirations.

The point here is that 'aspirations' are a mixed bag and not solely about economic development. Bihar under Lalu Prasad slipped on economic parameters, but he is still popular because he stood as a messiah of the other backward castes (OBCs). Present-day Bengal is also losing the battle for economic development, as evident from its falling contribution to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but people have faith in Mamata Banerjee for other reasons, one of those being fulfilling the aspirations of women.

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For Adityanath, it's been different. Being the first saffron-clad chief minister of UP, he, of course, had to fulfil the cultural aspirations of Hindus. But Hindu is not a monolithic identity, and being the dominant majority, Hindus do not prefer to do tactical voting like Muslims. So Adityanath had to be attentive to the socio-cultural-economic aspirations of the different castes within the umbrella. Further, as he indicated, the aspirations of the 'peaceable' Muslims were his concern, too. If he has performed accordingly in the last five years, he will win.

Critics had tried to paint Adityanath in the single colour of a saffron leader. But religiosity is not necessarily an antonym of peaceful development. Sweden is often described as the ideal nation-state, but it had the Lutheran Church of Sweden as its state religion till 2000. The official religion of the United Kingdom is Christianity, and so also of different other countries. Thus, it is not religiosity that matters. The clinching factor is performing 'rajadharma' that entails protecting all innocent people and ensuring fulfilling the aspirations of the citizens.

Still, if Adityanath loses, much will be lost for the Hindutva forces, for it will be the defeat of a saffron-clad symbol of new age Hindutva. It will be proven that even wearing saffron is not sufficient for winning an important election in India. It makes Adityanath's ride burdened with much extra baggage.

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However, suppose Adityanath were to lead the BJP to a comprehensive win. It will be proof that he has succeeded in maintaining the subtle balance between serving Hindutva sentiments expected from a monk and the secular demands of society. It will elevate his image, making him the next-gen topmost leader of his party.

Of immense significance is that if it happens, it will occur when a vacuum is being created in the BJP's leadership amidst its falling popularity, as evident from Narendra Modi's withdrawal of the farm laws. The Centre's failures on several fronts along with insensitive decisions - exemplified by insincere demonetisation, sudden lockdown in 2020 without giving any chance to the hapless migrant workers to return home, and failure to contain inflation - could make its life more difficult in the coming days.

At this juncture, there is no leader other than Adityanath in the BJP who has the charisma required to take the party to new heights. If he wins this tough election, he could, in the post-2024 scenario, emerge as a threat to Modi's preeminence in the BJP.

So, if Adityanath manages to scrape through, it would cause much heartburn in the BJP, for the whole matrix in the saffron camp will start changing. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), of which Adityanath was never a member, will be forced to project him as the new icon of Hindutva, just like it projected Modi two decades ago after the Gujarat riots. However, the advantage for Adityanath will be that he will not emerge out of the mesh of violence and hatred but through democratic means.

(The writer is a journalist and author based in Kolkata)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.