JOIN USAIADMK@50: Fraught with factional feuds
“AIADMK is a real people’s movement headed by a leader who has committed herself to the people. Even after me, the AIADMK will continue to serve the people (of Tamil Nadu) for centuries together.”
J Jayalalithaa thundered passionately in the Tamil Nadu Assembly in January 2016, months before leading her party to a second consecutive term in May.
Despite the fact that a video of her fiery speech is still the pinned tweet of the AIADMK's verified Twitter account, Jayalalithaa probably didn't foresee the worst crisis the party has ever faced occurring just 10 months after her proclamation.
And the political crisis triggered by Jayalalithaa’s death on December 5, 2016, is yet to tide over even after nearly six years with multiple leaders laying claim to the AIADMK leadership.
Power struggle in golden jubilee year
Hardly a month is left for the 50th anniversary of the party but the power struggle that intensified after the AIADMK lost its government in May 2021 still continues.
Edappadi K Palaniswami, whose faction controls the majority in party forums and won a court victory on Friday as part of the ongoing legal battles, his rival, and the former coordinator O Panneerselvam, late Jayalalithaa’s close aide V K Sasikala, and her nephew T T V Dhinakaran are all claimants of the party now.
While all of them have their own reasons and claims to capture the party, the fact that none of them have ideological or political disagreements between them explains the character of the whole crisis.
Founded by MGR in 1972, AIADMK has had a special place in Tamil Nadu’s political history post-1967 as it ruled the state for 30 years, much more than its parent party, DMK, which ushered in the Dravidian era in the state.
After MGR, Jayalalithaa transformed the AIADMK into a cadre-based outfit as her authoritarian style of functioning helped bring “military-like” discipline to the party. At one point, Jayalalithaa had proclaimed that AIADMK had a cadre base of 1.5 crore.
Absence of a succession plan
In the absence of a clear succession plan by Jayalalithaa, in much of these six years after her demise, the AIADMK has been fighting itself, not its arch-rival DMK, which is now firmly back in the saddle after being out of power in Tamil Nadu for a decade.
The party has not won any election after 2016 and is facing a near existential crisis -- the AIADMK emerging as a strong opposition party – its best performance in a losing election – is the only solace.
“The AIADMK since it was founded in 1972 has functioned under a centralized leadership. The leaders, MGR and Jayalalithaa, were very popular figures and they were the driving force of the AIADMK. The party suffers as it lacks the star value. The current leadership is uninspiring and are not able to revitalize the cadre,” political analyst P Ramajayam told DH.
Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh adds: “The party thrived only on the charisma of MGR and Jayalalithaa. In their absence, there is nothing to hold the AIADMK together.”
How did the crisis begin?
The crisis began within three months of Jayalalithaa’s death when O Panneerselvam rebelled against V K Sasikala, who was appointed as the AIADMK’s interim general secretary, in February 2017.
Edappadi K Palaniswami was chosen as chief minister by Sasikala before she left for Bengaluru to serve a four-year prison term in a disproportionate assets (DA) case. However, as Sasikala was cooling her heels in a Bengaluru prison, EPS and OPS came together, at the prodding of the BJP, to “jointly” lead the AIADMK.
The dual leadership model failed in July 2022 when a General Council meeting convened by the majority EPS faction sacked OPS, who went to the court and restored his position in the party. With a belligerent EPS not willing for a compromise with OPS, the stalemate continues even as the party suffers without anyone guiding it from the top.
Ceding the Opposition space
What happens to party cadres and leaders when there is almost nothing to motivate them in a political party? Besieged by its internal issues, the obvious fate has hit on AIADMK too; migration of leaders not just to DMK, a ruling party with seemingly better prospects, but also to the BJP, a national party which has more resources and power even as it still remains unpopular in the state.
The party with 66 MLAs has ceded much of the opposition space to its ally BJP, which is waiting in the wings to slice it into pieces by taking advantage of the internal problems.
After losing power, the party's public engagements too have been inadequate, and its alliance with the BJP is preventing it from defending its social welfare principles. AIADMK is conspicuously absent from the debate on freebies versus welfare measures, despite its late leaders championing the cause with programmes like mid-day meals.
Too much dependence on BJP to save its government that survived on a wafer-thin majority for half of its tenure also weakened the AIADMK as an organisation.
‘Committed vote bank is still intact’
Even though things look bad, there is a bright side. Much of the party’s vote bank seems to be intact as the AIADMK scored an impressive 33 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections. The prerequisite to hold onto the committed vote bank and revive the party, political analysts and party veterans say, is to bring all claimants together.
However, Palaniswami may not agree for a reproachment, and Friday's verdict would embolden him, even as the legal issues linger on. “AIADMK is complete only when all the four – EPS, OPS, Sasikala, and TTV come together. The last three may not have much support but they have the potential to affect the electoral prospects of the AIADMK. So, the only way is to unite the party,” Ramajayam said.
“The party’s vote bank has always stood with it, and it is not that easy for any party to snatch it away from the AIADMK. The Two Leaves symbol still holds magic in parts of TN and there is no denying,” he added.
Another political analyst who did not wish to be named told DH the current leadership does not inspire confidence among the cadre or general public.”
“The cadre would still want to stand with the party and there is no doubt about that. But structurally, the party has to undergo changes. Once that happens, AIADMK will bounce back. It is possible because of the strong cadre base it has,” he said.