Can Modi magic help BJP sail through the coming year?

The opposition parties learnt vital lessons from the BJP’s recent losses in the assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh and the civic polls in Delhi. The lessons could serve them well in the nine assembly polls slated for 2023.

If the BJP’s record-setting Gujarat win was proof of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talismanic leadership in his home state, the defeats in Himachal and Delhi exposed the limitations of his charisma in overcoming anti-incumbency, inflation, non-performance and other local factors in one-on-one electoral battles outside Gujarat.

For the BJP, the losses are a reminder that the ‘index of opposition unity’ should remain fractured, which helped its massive mandate in Gujarat.

The BJP’s challenge in 2023 would be to retain Tripura, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, while wresting power from the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and from the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana.

The battles in the remaining three states – Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram – are between regional parties.

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Inflation would be a worry for the BJP in the coming months.

According to the CSDS surveys in Gujarat and Himachal, common people complained of increased prices of essential commodities, such as cooking gas cylinders. Under pressure and despite decrying freebies, the BJP in Gujarat promised two free cylinders a year.

Surveys found that poorer the family, more unlikely it was to vote for the BJP. It remains to be seen if the Centre will extend the Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana beyond December 31, 2022. Modi launched the scheme on March 31, 2020, after the Covid-19 outbreak, to provide free cereals to 80 crore poor.

The hitch is that while headline inflation moderated from 6.8 per cent in October to 5.9 per cent in November, cereal inflation is exceptionally high at 13 per cent. Much would depend on the winter harvest. According to the CSDS surveys, more men than women voted for the BJP in recent polls. In Himachal, at least half or more said they no longer benefit from the Centre or state’s welfare schemes.

In a revealing finding, the PM Kisan Nidhi beneficiaries were more likely to vote for the BJP, while non-beneficiaries were likely to vote for the Congress. However, if the voters voted for the BJP due to Modi’s appeal, they voted for the Congress if they liked its candidate.

In Himachal, a predominantly Hindu state with less than 3 per cent population of minorities and a tradition of the youth joining armed forces in large numbers, the BJP’s nationalist narrative lost to local issues.

Its vote share dropped from the 2017 election’s 49 per cent to 43 per cent in 2022 despite the PM urging people to forget who the BJP candidate was in their constituency and ‘vote for Modi’.

Another lesson from the results is the need to connect with people. Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra spent over three weeks in Karnataka and is now in Rajasthan – both of which go to polls in 2023.

The Rajasthan BJP has undertaken a ‘Jan Akrosh Yatra’ across the state. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the rise of tribal-led outfits, such as Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti Sangathan, could make the fight triangular in reserved seats, worrying Congress.

Similarly, any alliance in Tripura between the opposition Congress and CPI(M) would make it difficult for the BJP to retain power.

The BJP would wish for a triangular contest in Karnataka between itself, Congress and JD(S) and a multi-cornered one in Telangana.