Maharashtra coalition politics: Fissures, tension ahead of LS polls
The Shinde-Fadnavis government has completed one year in office. In spite of this, the future of the government still hangs in the balance. This is because both the BJP and the Shiv Sena faction led by CM Eknath Shinde are aware of the fact that the political arrangement between the two is unnatural. 40-odd MLAs of Shinde’s group being supported by 105 MLAs of BJP reminds us of the failure of a similar experiment of Chandrashekhar (40 MPs) being supported by the Congress (195 MPs) in 1990. Therefore, the legitimate question is how long this arrangement in Maharashtra will continue.
Friction between the BJP and the Shinde faction has already emerged. Differences have been voiced publicly over the possible seat-sharing for the next Lok Sabha (LS) polls in 2024. Being a big brother and a national party, BJP wants a bigger share of LS seats in Maharashtra. The state has 48 LS seats, the second-largest number after Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats.
Staking claim
The matter became more serious when BJP staked claim over the Lok Sabha seat of the CM’s son Shrikant Shinde, who represents the Kalyan constituency. Similar claims are regularly being made by BJP state leaders, which has created nervousness in the Shinde group. The latest trigger point was a full front-page ad of Shinde, labelling him the most popular CM of the state. The advertisement enraged Fadnavis so much that he skipped some public functions organised along with CM Shinde. The matter was resolved soon, with both announcing their alliance was like ‘Fevicol’, and will not break. In spite of these courageous statements, the uneasiness among party workers and state-level leaders persists.
The opposite camp – the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consists of the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena (UBT group) led by Uddhav Thackeray — is also experiencing similar political anxieties. Ajit Pawar, the ambitious nephew of NCP President Sharad Pawar, has his eyes on the CM's chair. This is rendering Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress sleepless.
In the recently held Agricultural Produce Market Committee(APMC) elections and other local-level elections, NCP has emerged as the top-ranked among the three in the alliance. In this achievement, the younger Pawar's contribution was considered remarkable. Obviously, it is natural for him to eye for the top slot. That is why he has publicly demanded that he be given an organisational post as he is not interested in continuing as Leader of the Opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly. The response to his demand from Sharad Pawar is awaited.
On the other hand, the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray is not ready to give up its claim on the CM post. Insiders say that Uddhav Thackeray wants to see his son Aditya in the CM chair. In this race, Congress is lagging behind.
Against the backdrop of these developments, as the LS elections get nearer, the game of push-pull and one-upmanship will get sharper. In any case, for the LS elections, the BJP will have a bigger share of seats. On the Opposition front, all three are evenly placed and they may settle for similar seat-sharing. The real fight in both camps will be for the Assembly polls.
Simultaneous polls
Indications are that BJP may go for early Assembly polls alongside the Lok Sabha polls. With the faces of Shinde-Fadnavis, the BJP is not sure of a clean victory. If Assembly elections are held with the LS polls they can have the advantage of the Modi factor playing to their benefit. Therefore the idea of having simultaneous polls in Maharashtra is being considered seriously. BJP had a decisive defeat in Karnataka and they do not want a repeat of that in Maharashtra.
The thinking of the BJP is that they are ruling the political capital of the country, Delhi, and now they want to win the financial capital of India, Mumbai. The party has even put the urban local body elections (in Mumbai, Pune, etc.) on hold for more than a year due to the fear of losing. The likelihood is that these will be held after the LS and Assembly polls.
In brief, Maharashtra will not be an easy task for the BJP, especially when they have a stamp on them for aligning with the Shiv Sena ‘traitors’. In an Assembly bypoll held in Pune (Kasba Peth) a few months back, BJP was badly defeated. Congress, with the support of NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT), won the seat. That was the warning bell for BJP, and they will have to understand the message it conveyed.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Pune, Maharashtra)
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