Congress: Paying for its Scindias

When Congress lost Gujarat assembly polls for sixth consecutive time in December 2017 despite strong anti-incumbency against the ruling BJP and the absence of Narendra Modi as the BJP’s state face on account of having become the prime minister three years ago, a journalist had, in jest, asked a Congress spokesperson: “can you say how does Congress manage to lose seemingly winning elections, and some tips on the strategy of converting victory into defeat?”.

More than two years later, when Congress on Friday lost Madhya Pradesh even after winning the state in 2018, the question was back to stare the oldest political party of India in the face.

Congress leader and Chief Minister Kamal Nath had to put in papers as a good number of party MLAs decamped to the BJP side, a development propelled by an inside coup with one of the key party leaders from the state, Jyotiraditya Scindia, joining the BJP.

Madhya Pradesh was a state which was always considered within the reach of Congress even as it had lost three successive elections ever since its last CM Digvijay Singh was defeated by a firebrand Sadhvi-turned-politician Uma Bharati, who led the BJP to victory in 2003 state polls.

The Congress did not win for 15 years mainly due to internal dissension and intense groupism. There was the competing ambitions of the triumvirate of the party—Digvijay Singh, Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia. It was only in 2018 when Congress, gasping for breath after its 2014 general election debacle and string of defeats in state polls, came together, partly under compulsion, to stay relevant and party under pressure from party leader Rahul Gandhi.

But the cosmetic unity cracked up in less than one and a half year and the party was again into two camps—with Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath on one side and Scindia ploughing a lonely furrow in his stronghold Gwalior-Chambal region. As it stands now, Scindia has been able to ensure the Congress loses the crucial central India state which it had won with so much effort after such a long gap.

Madhya Pradesh is not an isolated example. There is hardly a state where internal rivalry has not raised head in Congress unit—be it the Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot rivalry in Rajasthan or in Maharashtra Milind Deora-Sanjay Nirupam or state Congress president Ashok Chavan versus others like Prithviraj Chavan or former CM Vilasrao Deshmukh’s son Amit Deshmukh in different time zones.

Congress has badly lost two successive general elections - clocking its historically worst tally of 44 in 2014 and marginally improving in 2019 to 52 in 545-member Lok Sabha. Both the times Congress failed to get even a Leader of Opposition status in Lok Sabha as it could not win the mandatory minimum 10% of total seats to claim that.

Barring the silver-lining of 2018, when it won three state elections - MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - in a go, the party has not won any election on its own. It lost Delhi in three successive polls including in 2020 despite having been the ruling party there for 15-long years till 2013. In Jharkhand where it is in power, it is piggy-riding a pro-tribal party JMM, which is the lead partner in coalition.

In the Maharashtra ruling combine, Congress is a junior partner. As it did an ideological somersault, it decided to support oldest NDA ally Shiv Sena to form government. This, after the latter snapped ties with the BJP on the chief ministership issue following the 2019 state polls.

In Haryana, despite a massive anti-incumbency against BJP’s Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, Congress could not stage a comeback though its former CM for two terms - Bhupinder Singh Hooda - who was given the state command at the eleventh hour, ensured a respectable tally for Congress.

Opposing Hooda’s elevation, young leader Ashok Tanwar, who was Rahul Gandhi’s pick and was made the state chief, quit the party.

Scindia’s exit from Congress in March brings to fore the faultlines within Congress, which stares at a total crisis of commitment and a devastating drift that seems to be engulfing the party.

Rahul Gandhi quit as Congress president owning up responsibility for the 2019 Lok Sabha poll defeat and fuming at the party veterans for furthering the interests of their wards and not lending him enough support. Though he made it clear that no one from Nehru Gandhi family should be made the next party chief and indicated that he wanted the senior leaders to take responsibility and step aside, none of the party veterans resigned. They ultimately prevailed on Sonia Gandhi to take up the reins of the party again, which she had handed over to Rahul in December 2017.

As the old guard is well ensconced, the generation next in the party is restive and there is no clear future roadmap. When Scindia resigned, former Union minister Natwar Singh described this a “setback” to the Congress while veteran Karan Singh’s son Vikramaditya Singh rued that it was sad that a dedicated and impactful leader like Scindia was “sidelined rather than being rewarded” and predicted that the party will have to pay a heavy price.

Sonia has made it clear that she will remain as head of the party only for a temporary period, Rahul has made it clear that he will not come as Congress chief and there is no third name on which there is any consensus. As the party is heading towards a leaderless state, leader after leader from the states have been quitting.

While Scindia quit after not being made party state chief in Madhya Pradesh, Tanwar quit in Haryana after he was removed as party chief in October 2019. In March 2019 AICC media secretary Tom Vadakkan, a Christian leader from Kerala once considered close to Sonia Gandhi, quit the Congress and joined the BJP. Another key media face of Congress Priyanka Chaturvedi soon followed suit and joined Shiv Sena in April the same year.

Many of these leaders, who quit Congress, felt the drift will not take the party anywhere and could foresee an end to their political career. Scindia, who had lost the 2019 Lok Sabha polls on Congress ticket, is all set to become a Rajya Sabha MP from BJP now and is expected to get a plum Cabinet portfolio while Priyanka has become Rajya Sabha member from Sena. Her erstwhile boss in Congress AICC media department Chairman Randeep Surjewala could not get Rajya Sabha nomination from the party, which chose to field Deepender Hooda.

In 2015, Congress lost its key strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had raised the banner of protest against veteran Tarun Gogoi. Sarma later joined BJP and is now a key minister in the BJP government of Assam, besides being the BJP’s points man in entire North East.

At least five former Chief Ministers and half a dozen former Union Ministers of Congress have quit the party since 2014.

They include former Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi, former Uttarkhand C M Vijay Bahuguna, five-time CM of Meghalaya Donwa Dethwelson, former Karnataka CM and former external affairs minister S M Krishna, former Uttar Pradesh CM N D Tiwari, former Union minister Jayanti Natarajan and D Purandeswari, senior Congress leader from Haryana Chaudhary Birender Singh and senior Congress leader from Maharashtra Narayan Rane.

Blasting the Congress after exit poll results of 2019 Lok Sabha polls, pollster turned politician Yogendra Yadav had said the “Congress must die” as it represents “single biggest obstacle to creating an alternative”. Historian Ramchandra Guha said being a “fifth generation dynast” and his lack of focus and administrative experience make it very difficult for Rahul Gandhi to win elections for Congress.

While Congress reacted very sharply to both these remarks, the writing on the wall for Congress is getting clearer. Pull up the socks or pack up.