Taking the sheen off Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second coming in 2019 with a bigger mandate on the promise of a “new India” raised hopes for unleashing economic reforms and a more muscular approach in dealing vexed issues – ranging from unrest in Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan and China.

However, the first few months of Modi 2.0 witnessed hectic activity in addressing the core Hindutva constituency with legislation on `triple talaq’, the surprise reading down of Article 370 granting special status to Jammu and Kashmir and downgrading the state to two union territories – J&K and Ladakh enthused the loyal BJP voter.

The second Parliament session of Modi 2.0 saw the government push through the Citizenship Amendment Bill – that seeks to grant Indian citizenship to persecuted religious minorities from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh – ignoring the strong protests by the opposition parties. A large section of BJP supporters were hoping Modi would administer the bitter bill of economic reforms – privatisation, disinvestment, labour reforms, banking reforms – in the first year. But, before the newly re-elected government could settle in office, it was faced with a pandemic that brought the world to a standstill.

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Modi’s attempts to push through economic reforms in the middle of the pandemic have backfired – the agricultural reforms have brought farmers on to the streets, the labour reforms appear to have come unstuck and the much-touted Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 is in a limbo with rules yet to be framed. The Prime Minister doggedly supported the agricultural reforms – speaking strongly in favour of them even as his ministerial colleagues tried to reason out with the farmer unions to call off their siege of the capital’s borders.

As the negotiations stretched on for weeks, the government which had pushed the reforms with gusto suddenly appeared ready to keep them in cold storage much to the chagrin of its supporters. The readiness of the government to suspend the laws it steered through Parliament at the sign of resistance betrayed Modi’s carefully nurtured image of a tough leader. The same has been the case with labour reforms as the government appears to dilly dally on notifying the rules of the four labour codes – that subsumed 44 archaic labour laws – to implement them.

A glimpse of this “self-correcting” mode of governance was also seen during the first term when Modi allowed the land acquisition law – introduced as an Ordinance – to lapse in the face of opposition. However, these corrective steps – be it with regard to land laws or the farm laws – could have been avoided had there been adequate consultations with stakeholders before bringing in the sweeping changes.

The prolonged Covid-19 pandemic, particularly the raging second wave that left the citizens hunting for hospital beds and medicines, gasping for medical oxygen and those dead in endless queues for last rites, have taken the sheen off Modi’s tough administrator image. In tackling the pandemic, the government which revelled in self-praise – Modi hai toh mumkin hai – suddenly appears to be searching for answers and making one mistake after the other.

Within weeks of declaring India as the ‘pharmacy of the world’, the government was scouring the world to source vaccines for the immunisation drive that was stuttering due to shortages.

The astuteness of the government in decision making was also found wanting when it gave in to the opposition demand for opening up vaccination for the 18-44 age group knowing fully well that vaccines were in short supply. This speaks volumes of the decision-making process of the government in pressure situations.

BJP’s resounding defeat in the West Bengal elections has removed the aura of invincibility that Modi strutted around. The poll outcome has raised hopes among the opposition ranks of outsmarting the BJP at the hustings in 2024. With tales of misery abound during the pandemic, with dead bodies dotting the banks of the Ganga across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and reports about a non-existent healthcare system as Covid-19 spreads through rural India, the Modi government – or the absence of it – is stark.

Never before in his seven years in office has Modi appeared so vulnerable as a politician and as an administrator. The opposition has turned the phrase ‘Modi hai toh mumkin hai’ around to take repeated jibes at the government for the situation India found itself in during the second wave of the pandemic.

Similarities between ‘Modi at seven’ and ‘UPA at seven’ are inevitable. The UPA, under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, battled allegations of corruption in 2G spectrum allocation, coal block allocation, in the conduct of the Commonwealth Games and no amount of reasoned arguments found favour with critics or voters. The Congress leadership also allowed the UPA-II to drift with little attempts made to steer the ship to safety.

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The challenges for the BJP are huge, particularly in Uttar Pradesh which goes to polls early next year. The recent reversals in the panchayat elections in Uttar Pradesh and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic appear to negate the electoral gains the BJP was hoping for by building the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.

Kashi, Mathura

Perhaps aware about the setbacks it could face on core development issues, BJP appears to be quietly backing the demand for reclaiming the temples at Kashi and Mathura which has long been on the agenda of the saffron brigade. An adverse verdict in Uttar Pradesh in 2022 could unsettle BJP’s plans of a comeback in 2024. An immediate fallout of the unsavoury UP verdict could be felt in neighbouring Bihar, where the alliance with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is delicately poised.

In its unbridled quest for supremacy, the BJP has also alienated one-time coalition partners besides the larger opposition, which is now leaving no stone unturned to corner the Modi government as it moves from one crisis to another while dealing with the pandemic.

Bit by bit, the opposition is trying to chip away at Modi’s credibility as a leader which is visible in the fall in his approval ratings. However, even his bitterest critics are careful about writing off Modi, who has the uncanny knack of bouncing back from a crisis. Even as his approval ratings, as per Morning Consult, have dropped from a high of 84% on May 2 last year, to 64% on May 25, Modi still remains the most popular leader in the country.

Modi has just over two years before India moves into election mode again for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Will he build on the economic agenda such as the GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, Productivity Linked Incentive scheme etc to boost manufacturing and undertake bold banking reforms? Much of this depends on taming the pandemic by speeding up vaccination to reduce chances of another wave of Covid-19 and the bouncing back of the economy this fiscal. These twin gains, if achieved, could give Modi some elbow room to refurbish his credentials ahead of the 2024 elections.

The next two years could define Modi’s legacy – as a change agent as he has envisioned himself to be or a person who fared poorly when faced with the adversity brought in by a ‘once in a century’ pandemic. In navigating the crisis posed by the pandemic, Modi has to face an emboldened opposition which is watching and questioning his every step, an assertive judiciary and the turning tide of public opinion. Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s criticism after a phone call with Modi and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee skipping a meeting with the Prime Minister to review the Yaas cyclone are indications of the rough road ahead.

The immediate need is to provide a healing touch to the citizens each of whom have been bruised or battered by the pandemic. Steering the country out of the Covid is Modi’s biggest challenge which would determine how he would be remembered in the future.