Will Congress come out of its troubles?

On May 2, Congress added West Bengal to a dubious list of states where it does not have a single MLA in the state assembly. The others are Andhra Pradesh, where it was the unquestionable leader till the state was bifurcated in 2014, Delhi, where it failed to open its account in the assembly for the second consecutive term, and Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura.

Also, the grand old party failed miserably in Assam and Kerala – two states where it was hoping to come to power on the back of good campaigns and the personal capital invested by the Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka - who addressed several public meetings and road shows in a bid to turn the party’s fortunes.

Despite issues such as the Citizenship Act and the National Register of Citizens in Assam and allegations of corruption against LDF in Kerala, the spirited campaign by the Gandhi siblings failed to boost the morale of the party workers or that of the voters.

Since its second successive defeat in the Lok Sabha election in 2019, the party has lost elections in Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana and Bihar. In Jharkhand, it helped itself to power riding piggyback on ally Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, while in Maharashtra, it had finished fourth but got a share in power thanks to the deft political manoeuvring by NCP chief Sharad Pawar.

Over the years, Congress has become more reliant on allies to see it through the electoral challenges and appears to have lost confidence in putting up a solo fight. In the recent round of elections too, it chose to be part of a Mahajot in Assam where Tarun Gogoi had three consecutive terms as chief minister on his own; Sanjukta Morcha in West Bengal, the United Progressive Alliance in Puducherry; the Secular Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu and the traditional United Democratic Front in Kerala.

Since its electoral loss in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress has been on an auto-pilot mode – refusing to assess the reasons for its diminishing influence and firm in its belief of being a national party while leaving it to regional parties to fight the BJP.

Congress is getting a bitter reality check today when its biggest icons – Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra – have lost their lustre and failed to enthuse the voter.

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When faced with an electoral loss in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Rahul quit as Congress president taking moral responsibility for the party’s performance. However, over the years, he has been unable to let go of “poison pill” – as he described power after being appointed as vice president in 2013 – and continues to control the party without giving any blueprint for revival.

There has been no honest analysis of Congress’ successive poor showings at the hustings and change seekers have been brow-beaten and humiliated at internal meetings.

Rahul’s resignation drama after 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the recent insistence on focusing on Covid-19 situation is seen, internally, as an attempt to brush the tough questions of the failure of the leadership aside.

The Congress leadership needs to pick a leaf out of BJP veteran L K Advani’s copybook. If Advani can increase the numbers of the BJP from a mere two seats in the Lok Sabha in 1984 to 85 in a span of five years, why not the Congress?

Advani had identified then youngsters such as Pramod Mahajan, Sushma Swaraj, M Venkaiah Naidu, Uma Bharti, Gopinath Munde, Kalyan Singh, and K N Govindacharya among others and changed the face and character of the BJP.

It was also the time when the BJP managed to shed its image of a party of traders by projecting OBC leaders at a time when the Mandal issue was dictating politics and dovetailed it with another emotional issue of hardline Hindutva.

Advani managed to create space for the BJP in the northern and western states which continue to reap rich dividends for the party even today.

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The challenges for the Congress in the near future are in Uttar Pradesh, where Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has herself taken the lead to help the party make a comeback after more than three decades. But the journey is tough as the results of the recent panchayat elections is a testimony to that. In Uttarakhand, the BJP appears to be faltering with the recent leadership change, but a divided Congress does not appear to be in a position to reap benefits.

Punjab scene

In Punjab, Chief Minister Amarinder Singh calls the shots and has already displayed an independent streak by telling Rahul-Priyanka favourite Navjyot Singh Sidhu to fall in line or be left out. In Goa, the party lacks inspiring leaders and may as well help AAP get a footing in the state. All these states go to polls early next year.

Regional parties such as Samajwadi Party, RJD, Trinamool, JMM, NCP, BJD, DMK, TRS, YSRCP and AAP have shown that they were better placed than the Congress to take on the BJP in their respective turf. The recent performance of the Congress in assembly elections does not provide the Congress the luxury to negotiate with these regional outfits for seat sharing arrangements from a position of strength.

The Congress may have to be prepared to step back and let the regional outfits take a shot at challenging Modi in 2024 and allow a United Front experiment of 1996 take shape.

It could be a tough challenge as a large chunk that supported the regional parties in 1996 – 140 MPs of the Congress and 52 of the Left Front – appear nowhere in sight.

Attempts by the Congress to project Rahul as an intelligent leader who can strike carefully calibrated conversations with world economists and scholars may earn him a few brownie points on social media, which mean little if not backed by electoral success.

The projection by the Congress of ‘Rahul Is The Alternative’ (RITA) against ‘There Is No Alternative (TINA) to Modi in the virtual world may remain a mirage if not matched by a new web of social alliances and nurturing leaders who could deliver results.