Turmoil in Pakistan not good tidings for India

Events in Pakistan have taken an ugly turn with the political fight on the timing of elections between Imran Khan and the Shehbaz Sharif government degenerating into a power struggle between Khan and the army chief, Gen Asim Munir. The army’s imprint was all over the ongoing crisis. After all, Imran Khan’s ascent to power in 2018 and his ouster from the office of the prime minister in 2022 were the results of political engineering by former army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. Khan’s popularity has grown since then, turning him into a veritable challenge for the army itself.

Bajwa’s successor, Gen Asim Munir, bears a grudge against Khan, who, as the prime minister, had curtailed his tenure as the director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, the military spy agency of Pakistan. He had thus far kept a low profile in political matters, possibly because he was finding his feet in his new position. However, the army reacted angrily when Khan recently accused a major general heading the counter-intelligence unit of the ISI of engineering two attempts on his life. Shortly thereafter, he was arrested in a corruption case, resulting in violent protests across the country, unprecedented in their intensity, targeted primarily at army installations and properties.

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Khan’s release from detention by a Supreme Court bench, headed by the Chief Justice, who has been in open confrontation with the government, put an end to the protests, but not the crisis. A number of leaders of Khan’s party – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – have been arrested. He has held the army chief responsible for his arrest. A special conference of the Corps Commanders convened by Munir has sent out the message that all perpetrators and instigators of violence would be tried under the relevant laws, including the draconian Pakistan Army Act. This show of unity is significant in view of persistent reports of differences in the army’s higher echelons on the issue of dealing with Khan.

Munir’s attempt will be to neutralise Khan and his PTI as a political force. This will result in heightened confrontation, necessitating a more prominent role of the army, most likely behind a civilian façade, in keeping the situation under control. It will also paralyse further governance and the state’s ability to deal with other challenges, such as a tanking economy and growing terrorism.

Pakistan’s internal preoccupations, intensified by the recent events, rule out any meaningful bilateral engagement with India. This was quite evident during Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto’s recent visit to Goa for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s meeting hosted by Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. It caused further tension in the relationship because of his intemperate remarks during his media interactions. An Indo-Pak thaw may be possible only after things settle down in Pakistan, and India is through with its parliamentary elections next year.

A self-absorbed Pakistani state impairs the ability of its establishment to trouble India. It is not about to collapse, but each major crisis leaves it weaker and more dangerous. Were it to collapse someday – an outcome desired by some in our strategic community – it will confront us with an unbridled sea of extremism and terrorism; nuclear weapons in an extremely volatile environment; and a veritable humanitarian crisis of countless fleeing the turmoil. We have little leverage over Pakistan’s internal developments. However, we have been and should remain a beacon of hope to all constructive forces in the region, including Pakistan, as a stable and inclusive democracy, willing to share its economic success with its smaller neighbours without demanding strict reciprocity. Further, regardless of the fate of the Pakistani state, we have to live and deal with its people, who have suffered because of its establishment’s policies. Therefore, let us not lump them with the acts of their establishment and our responses to them.

(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan and author of ‘India’s Pakistan Conundrum Managing a Complex Relationship’.)