Run-rate conundrum: Fair play? KSCA tests NRRR

Bengaluru: Run-rate calculations in cricket have long been controversial, with every system devised -- from Average Run Rate (ARR) to Most Productive Overs (MPO) to the currently used Net Run Rate (NRR) -- facing criticism. Each revision, meant to fix flaws, hasn’t been immune to disputes. But then given the number of extraneous factors that influence a game’s outcome, devising a flawless formula is nearly impossible.

A recent example came during the 2024 T20 World Cup. England, grouped with Australia, Scotland, Oman and Namibia, risked elimination after a washout with Scotland and a loss to Australia. Scotland’s big wins gave them a stronger NRR, meaning England needed emphatic victories while Scotland only had to avoid a heavy defeat against Australia.

The situation escalated when Australia’s Josh Hazlewood joked it might benefit his team to let Scotland progress. Though skipper Pat Cummins clarified, questions of ethics and fair play arose. In the end, England’s big wins, despite Australia’s narrow victory over Scotland, settled the issue, but had England missed qualification due to NRR, the fallout could have been massive.

Two shortcomings

The NRR formula (runs per over scored minus runs per over conceded) has two major flaws. It ignores wickets lost while exaggerating margins. For example, a team scraping home with one wicket left can end with a higher NRR than a side winning with wickets to spare but using more overs. In tournaments where points are tied, such a vagary can unfairly decide a team’s progression.

V Jayadevan 

The DLS method, used in weather-affected matches, does factor in overs and wickets. While it is more sophisticated, it’s not without drawbacks. Inspired by this, umpire Keshav Kolle and V Jayadevan (creator of the VJD method, which also takes wickets into consideration in revised targets, used in Indian domestic cricket) have come up with an alternative: Net Relative Run Rate (NRRR). Unlike NRR, NRRR factors wickets into the equation, claiming to produce more balanced outcomes. The Karnataka State Cricket Association recently tested it in the Maharani Trophy T20 (for women) and the positive feedback encouraged it to use the method in the ongoing Maharaja Trophy T20 in Mysuru.

Keshav explains the flaw in NRR with an example.

“In a 20-over game, Team-1 is bowled out for 80. Team-2 wins with 81/9 in just 10 overs. Here, NRR gives Team-1 a huge deficit of -4.10 and Team-2 a +4.10,” he tells DH. “This massive swing occurs even though Team-2’s win was narrow. If this were a multi-team event, Team-1 would struggle to overturn the deficit, effectively being punished beyond proportion for a close loss. By contrast, NRRR uses DLS/VJD par scores to incorporate wickets (see the formula). In this case, Team-2’s par score after 10 overs with 9 wickets down would be 73. Scoring 81 means they are only 8 runs ahead, leading to modest ratings of -0.088 and +0.088. This makes the contest fairer by keeping Team-1 realistically in contention,” feels the BCCI panel umpire.

Multilateral event

Keshav Kolle

Keshav also highlights a triangular-tournament scenario. Suppose Team-1 loses narrowly to Team-2 but crushes Team-3. Team-2, despite only edging Team-1, then suffers a big defeat to Team-3. Logic suggests Team-1 should qualify with Team-3. Yet, under current NRR, Team-1’s initial heavy penalty prevents recovery, allowing Team-2 to advance despite losing badly later. With NRRR, however, the adjusted values show Team-1 and Team-3 progressing, which aligns better with cricketing logic.

“Unlike traditional NRR, which creates extreme swings and nearly impossible deficits, NRRR keeps margins proportional and tournaments competitive,” says Keshav

The core difference, according to Keshav, lies in the treatment of wickets. NRR bases its calculations solely on runs per over, so when a side collapses but wins quickly, the distortion is too significant to ignore. NRRR compares actual performance with the expected par score considering wickets, ensuring that close matches do not disproportionately punish or reward teams.

Net Run Rate

While no system can fully capture the complexities of cricket, NRRR appears a notable improvement over NRR, according to Keshav who is optimistic that with KSCA’s backing and positive reception from franchises, he hopes NRRR will gain wider acceptance.